Brammo Owners Forum
Brammo Empulse Discussion => Brammo Empulse => Topic started by: brammoHKjames on August 04, 2011, 09:47:57 PM
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As Brammo are now approaching 1000 pre-orders, how many of those do you think will materialize into actual money-down orders? Just to get you really thinking...if only Empulse 10.0 was available.
It seems very easy to have a commitment free pre-order with no deposit, to have a chance at winning a free bike. Is this pre-order system the right way to gauge potential sales interest?
What would you do to gauge market interest if you were Brammo/Zero/Quantya/KTM?
Just questions i'm throwing out there, please don't read too much into it... :)
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If I wanted to get a better idea of who was really interested, I would ask for a deposit - say about $200-$500.
However, if I wanted to generate a lot of interest, and get 1000 people hooked into watching my company for a year or two, I would keep the pre-orders free and dangle the chance to win a free bike for one of the first 1000 pre-orders.
(Does that sound familiar at all? ;D)
Heck, if I could hand over all of the cash today and bump up my pre-order from 935 to 100 or less, I would do it. Sadly, I don't see that happening. :-\ No Empulse for me for a long time yet.
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The Nissan Leaf preorder to order conversion rate is around 20-40%, and that's with a $100 deposit.
http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/02/only-40-percent-of-leaf-orders-become-purchases.html (http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/02/only-40-percent-of-leaf-orders-become-purchases.html)
The Empulse is shaping up to be somewhat different (and later) than originally announced. We'll see how that shakes out .. my suspicion is that the longer Brammo delays, the closer the major manufacturers get to releasing their own bikes.
See also Aptera. Very cool car, even now.. but how many would buy it over a Leaf? And how many of those gave up waiting and bought a Leaf?
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In my case, I pre-ordered an Empulse 10.0 about 7 days after the original announcement was made over a year ago (having been at the BMW motorcycle national rally at the time). Since then I managed to save enough cash to purchase the bike outright. Then when the year (at least) delivery delay was announced, I spent my money on fixing up my home.
In the meantime, waiting another year is going to get kind of old. Most people who buy motorcycles do so on the spur of the moment and I have seen very few customers that are willing to wait much more than a month or two to buy a new motorcycle model and I can't recall anyone who was ever willing to wait a year or more for a new motorcycle. The motorcycle business just isn't like that. You buy a motorcycle for fun and when you can afford it. If you have the money, it burns a hole through your pocket and if one bike isn't available, you just go buy the next best greatest model.
I can get the Empulse's performance by buying a new Honda CBR250R for only $4000 and it is available right now. You really have to want electric power to be willing to wait a year and pay an additional $10,000. The Empulse is going to be a tough sell in that kind of market and the bad economy is not going to help matters any.
I'll bet you a box of used LiFePo4 Hi Power batteries that Brammo will be lucky to see 10% of those 1,000+ Empulse pre-orders turn into actual sales when the bike finally arrives on the market next year (we all hope).
(Opps, I made a little number typo error, which has now been corrected.)
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I can get the Empulse's performance by buying a new Honda CBR250R for only $4000 and it is available right now.
I expect performance near if not superior to a 500cc bike, not a 250.
But I guess we won't know until the third phase of production bikes goes out to media outlets .. sometime next year.
I won't take your bet if we're waiting on 10k pre-orders : )
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@brammoHKjames: I completely agree with Richard230. I think the best way for you to have an idea how much Empulses you will be able to sell is to have one to sell in the first place. Without that, everything is just bad guesstimates. I can say that a couple of months ago I would buy the Empulse without even blinking. Now, I'm not even in the wait list anymore.
I am just waiting to see the Empulse in a local dealer, which will take over a year to happen. Until then, I am buying a Ninja 250.
When and if the Empulse becomes a reality, I will check it out. Right now it seems as far from my reality as Mission or Lightning.
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Now, I'm not even in the wait list anymore.
Well, that might explain something...
Quoting delivery dates is tricky (we are now very close to the magic 1000 pre-orders).
"very close to ... 1000 pre-orders"? I was 935 about 5 months ago (has it only been 5 mothns? It seems like years!), I would have thougt that they would have hit the 1000 mark a long time ago, but if people are bailing out, that would explain why they are still not at 1000 yet.
The Nissan Leaf preorder to order conversion rate is around 20-40%, and that's with a $100 deposit.
That's good news for me: I may, in reality, be only 187-374 (rather than 935) based on that conversion rate. Or even better if folkes are getting off the waiting list. ;)
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I got on the Empulse list last Easter Sunday and I have machine #1065. I'd like Brammo to do a better job of briefing the potential customers of all the innovative Tech that is going into the Empulse. IET,Batts,controllers,fairings?, etc. I mean tell us how some of this stuff works(IET) and why the brand they use is best,etc.,etc.
Haven't heard much but race news for a while,but no fruit drops from it.(lessons learned).
Still patient........#1065
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See also Aptera. Very cool car, even now.. but how many would buy it over a Leaf? And how many of those gave up waiting and bought a Leaf?
At least one. :)
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This just tweeted by Craig:
http://twitter.com/# (http://twitter.com/#)!/BrammoCraig/statuses/100964236691382273
Continued strong interest in Brammo. We will be drawing the winner of an Empulse from the 1,000 pre-orders in September, stay tuned!
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Does that mean that there will be an Empulse for people with money to spend that can be purchased in September? ???
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Unlikely.
1. A winner will be picked, but that winner won't likely get his/her Empulse till when the bikes are formally in production...next summer.
2. When production starts, most will go to pre-orders. Some will go to dealers as demos. Demos are not allowed to be sold...at least not for some time. But dealers with demos will be allowed to place orders...I imagine those dealer orders will be mixed in with the pre- orders...as in Brammo will fill pre ordes, but also dealer orders at the same time.
3. All this is speculation by myself and could be horribly wrong.
Gavin
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There are up to high 1300's based on my pre-order.
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2. When production starts, most will go to pre-orders. Some will go to dealers as demos. Demos are not allowed to be sold...at least not for some time. But dealers with demos will be allowed to place orders...I imagine those dealer orders will be mixed in with the pre- orders...as in Brammo will fill pre ordes, but also dealer orders at the same time.
I doubt that walk-in dealer orders will be delivered before preorders -- or at least before that particular dealer has sold all of their allotted and confirmed preorders.
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I somewhat agree....basically a lot depends on production ramp up (being delayed a year could help as Brammo should have a good 6 months of Plus production experience under its belt)
1. Brammo won't want to upset pre order people too much
2. At the same time, Brammo will want to get dealers lots of sales ASAP to keep dealers happy. Dealers will want to sell bikes to local customers as locals are repeat buyers...so walk in count more than somebody like me that is a pre order, likely from out of state, that will not be seeing that shop again any time soon
So it is a balance...fill pre-orders while still getting demos out and getting some bikes on the floor to sell too...
But if Brammo can make 1000 a month, and that should be a doable number by next summer, well within a couple of months it shouldn't be an issue.
Gavin
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As I see it, pre-orders are what may sway shops to become Brammo dealers. No doubt they will be provided with a list of nearby Empulse pre-order customers to contact as soon as the vehicle becomes available. Why wait for walk-in customers, when you already have a list of interested Empulse customers and their e-mail and home addresses? All you need is a dealer near you and if someone does not have a dealer nearby, the closest dealer can always ship the bike to the customer and handle the paperwork through the mail. I don't see a problem satisfying both Brammo dealers and pre-order customers as soon as the bikes are delivered.
That is the way BMW works. I special-ordered a new 2009 BMW F650GS in March 2008, before the bike was available in the U.S. The first U.S. bikes were made in June 2008, including mine, and were shipped to the U.S. in July. There they were held at BMW's warehouse until all of the pre-ordered bikes had arrived, along with enough of the model to provide every dealer at least one demonstrator to generate additional walk-in orders. I got my bike just as quickly as anyone - although not before anyone else. It seemed like a fair method for the dealers and worked out OK for me.
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Is there a way to check the status of my pre-order?
And is there an option to switch models, I would prefer a 2-seater if possible?
Thanks
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And is there an option to switch models, I would prefer a 2-seater if possible?
Yes, it is my understanding that the pre-order holds your place in line until you are about 3 months from the time of shipment/or pickup. At the 3 month mark, I would assume a deposit is due on the model that will be available, if you want it. There are many potential changes to the unreleased Empulse since pre-orders were first being gathered. I would guess that the released Empulse will be better than what I thought I would get at the time of my pre-order.
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Is there a way to check the status of my pre-order?
And is there an option to switch models, I would prefer a 2-seater if possible?
Thanks
I'm sure a lot of us wouldn't mind the option of having a two seater, but I don't think any of them are coming out two seaters as far as I know...
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Actually, it seems that there will be room for riding two up. Don't know if passenger pegs are optional or standard.
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Yep...seems the word is: Empulse 2012, 2 seater....Enertia and Enertia plus 2012, single seat...
Gavin
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That would be awesome.
"Hi there pretty lady, would you like a ride on my electric motorcycle?"
Vrooom Vrooom
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"Hi there pretty lady, would you like a ride on my electric motorcycle?"
Vrooom Vrooom
Heh! More like:
Hummm.... hummm...
Or even:
*silence*...
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Just placed my pre-order. #1542 I figure I have 6 months to get my life together. :D
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"Hi there pretty lady, would you like a ride on my electric motorcycle?"
Vrooom Vrooom
Heh! More like:
Hummm.... hummm...
Or even:
*silence*...
Yea, that's the only thing though... Hummmm Hummmm doesn't sound as sexy...
But I'll deal with that, when I get the bike...
Just placed my pre-order. #1542 I figure I have 6 months to get my life together. :D
6 months? That would be nice... Some of us have been waiting since pre-orders opened... about a year and a half ago...
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#1565.....
And if it takes to long, i Will buy à zero s. ::)
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I was lucky enough to have a look at the 2012 Zero bikes after the Milan show.
The EU headquarters is in Alkmaar (Netherlands) close to where I live. And the bikes where there before being shipped back to the US.
The bikes look good, and shipment to Europe starts in march 2012.
I am really in doubt now...
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I say don't jump the gun.The last thing you want is to have a less than superior bike after dropping over 10k.
I am not an expert but Brammo seems to ahead of the curve in many respects, I feel confident waiting a bit and letting Zero have their slap it together 100mph celebration.
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Zero S won't have a 100 mph celebration. Did you mean 100 miles? The 2012 S can travel at 75 mph, though it can reach up to 88 mph for perhaps a minute or two to pass or whatnot.
I believe Brammo has stated that the Empulse can hold 100 mph for as long as the battery will hold it. Empulse can likely peak somewhat higher than 100 mph with the IET, particularly if the LATime's report from the Long Beach motor show (http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/09/business/la-fi-brammo-empulse-ims-20111207) about an even more powerful motor are accurate.
The 2011 Zero S is a pretty solid bike. The 2012 S has some significant improvements: regen braking, more efficiency in the EPA UDDS, more power, substantial increase in range -- accompanied by a higher price point.
Empulse will supposedly be in production this spring. Unless some part of the bike is a deal-breaker - the IET perhaps, though Brammo states that the bike can be left in gear and used as a direct-drive - then it makes sense to me to wait for a bit and see what the production Empulse will look like.
Best case for Brammo is the Empulse ships 2-3 months after Zero S, makes more power, meets its original price points, and IET significantly increases performance.
Worst case, Brammo has a lot of room to trip up: further production slips, unsatisfying or fragile IET, singular 10 kwh configuration or price hikes, real-world range significantly less than Zero.
While in a very real sense Zero and Brammo are market competitors, they are both driving the state of the electric motorcycle far forward. Both of them have significant work ahead of their spring launches, I hope they both execute well and that 2012 is the best year yet for electric motorcycle consumers.
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Yes , I meant 100 mile range celebration. Thanks for clearing that up.
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The 2012 S can travel at 75 mph, though it can reach up to 88 mph for perhaps a minute or two to pass or whatnot.
I believe Brammo has stated that the Empulse can hold 100 mph for as long as the battery will hold it.
Can somebody tell me what happens when you push these bikes too hard? Do they overheat and then the computer takes over and slows the bike down, or do things start to smoke and then burn or melt? I don't think that ICE bikes have that kind of protection - I could red-line my old bike and the engine would just go on until it broke (not that I would do that to my poor bike).
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(http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7006/6503655059_930fba76b3_b.jpg)
For the current Enertia...not sure about the water cooled Empulse, but likely something similar to protect the motor...
Gavin
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I suspect many pre orders are lost because many buyers have loss interest. Brammo has been very wimpy with the details. They have not been helping to keep the dream alive.
I almost gave in to another 2011 ice bike. But lucky for Brammo, the seller pulled out of the deal at the last minute.
So, I am back in, until I find another offer I cannot walk away from.
Why won't Brammo tell us something about the Empulse????? It can only help sales.
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I agree, 1lesscar. Before Zero came out with their production bike, they did a great job of stringing along their pre-order customers. They came out every month or two and told their potential customers how great the new bike would be and that it would be arriving on their doorstep manana. Of course, it never seemed to come when it was promised. I waited for over a year before I got pissed off and just gave up with their broken promises. I then went out and bought an Electric Motorsport GPR-S from a local dealer. At least I could actually see that bike and I got a chance to test ride it. Too bad it was half-baked and just not ready for use by a non-technical customer who couldn't solve its problems by himself - as the dealer wasn't up to the task and the "factory" just wasn't interested in after-sales service.
Zero lost a lot of customers by stringing them along and making promises that they couldn't fulfill. However, they did manage to hang on to a lot of customers who might have gone out and bought a new IC bike and not waited for the Zero (at the time) vaporware. Brammo, seems to be going in the exact opposite direction. They are really making no promises to their pre-order customers about exactly what the production bike will be like (other than the top speed and potential range) or when it will be put on sale (other than some time next year, which is what they said last year).
Personally, I think neither approach is the right one. Granted, it is bad customer relations to make specific promises and then not follow through. On the other hand it isn't all that smart to sign up a lot of interested customers who are willing to spend $10,000 to $14,000 in a tough economy and then not keeping them in the development loop with regular bits of information and encouragement to stick with their electric motorcycle dreams, while development is completed on the Empulse and production facilities are established.
I have a feeling that a large number of Empulse pre-orders will have turned to smoke when the bike finally arrives and it is time to put cash where your typing fingers have been.
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I mostly agree in that I think some information now/soon would be better than waiting til spring...which is what has been suggested is the next "reveal" of the final Empulse.
At the same time, Brammo is planning at a long haul business plan. Losing some preorders is not as much of a concern when you are planning on sales growing through years 2,3,4 and beyond.
Still....Zero has shown their models for 2012. There is little reason not to reveal the 2012 Empulse and Plus at this point....unless Brammo knows of another "hidden" competitor. Keeping some aspects of the bike (looks, specs and such) hidden makes sense when your competition is working on their upcoming models (note Zero's 2012 front headlight), but once theirs are released, well there is less reason to be secretive.
And Brammo can steal some of Zeros thunder, and sales, by giving out info soon.
But again, these first year sales are not a huge number...still word of mouth and bikes on streets help increase future sales (I know because I have had tons of people asking about my test bike...and almost nobody has heared of Brammo before seeing "my" bike...though one guy yesterday in the Smith's grocery store parking lot asked me about the Empulse...which was cool...heck everyday people ask about the bike...the day before the Smith's guy I was eating a burger at a Carl's Jr and a guy sat down next to me and talked to me for 20 minutes while I ate...nice guy but was almost too much as I was carrying on a conversation while wolfing down fries and a western bacon cheese...).
On a semi side note: once you drive an electric motorcycle, you will LOVE the ride. You might still want an ICE as a second bike, but you will definitely want an EV too. Everybody should try to ride an Enertia or Zero...it will keep you yearning for an EV...just a fun fun ride.
Range is still an issue...can't wait for the Plus...and really can't wait for a few years down the road when the range is double or more again...then ICE bikes will have no real advantages at all...
Gavin
Ps....Brammo...please make the batteries of the 2012 models upgradable...I would love to buy some Brammo Power batteries in 2017 that take my Plus from 80 miles to 200 miles or so.... :)
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I have a feeling that a large number of Empulse pre-orders will have turned to smoke when the bike finally arrives and it is time to put cash where your typing fingers have been.
exactly, cash that I saved up for the EMPULSE is being spent right now on an ICE. Because with no reassurance from Brammo, I am starting to think its all BS.
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Ps....Brammo...please make the batteries of the 2012 models upgradable...I would love to buy some Brammo Power batteries in 2017 that take my Plus from 80 miles to 200 miles or so.... :)
+1
A little birdie said that Li Air may be commercially viable in 5-10 years. How about an Empulse with a 1,000 mile range?
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1000 miles of range in something like an Empulse would be fantastic. "may be" "5-10 years" is basically in fantasy land though.
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/10/deliberate-incompetence-makes-for-better-lithium-air-batteries.ars (http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/10/deliberate-incompetence-makes-for-better-lithium-air-batteries.ars)
Let's suppose battery weight, volume, and price stay the same, total energy is 10x current.
Empulse 5.0-100: 100 kwh, 420 lbs, 1000 miles range $14000
Empulse 5.0-60: 60 kwh, 360 lbs, 600 miles range $10000
Empulse 5.0-20: 20 kwh, 300 lbs, 200 miles range $8000
I think I'd pick the 20 kwh bike to be honest.
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Yeah...the 20 would likely work for just about everybody.
I might get the 60 in the above example just so I would never never never need to recharge on a ride. I occasionally go over 200 miles in a day. But riding a motorcycle, well you really need to stop and walk around a bit every 150 miles anyways...so the 20 would likely be more than fine.
Gavin
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edit....in the above example I would gather that the 20 did 200 miles of city driving...so about 100 miles at highway speeds.
I would definitely go 60 then as when I do LONG rides, most of it is at highway speeds...the ability to go 300 miles without charging would be better for that.
of course this is all just mirror ball gazing at the moment.
gavin
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20kWh would be nice for range.
However, with todays battery tech. The hottest pack you can put into one of these bikes is A123 20Ah pouch cells and your only going to get ~12kWh before it starts becoming too heavy.
So really, we need a break through in chemistry and cost still. But I have very high hopes that the next generation of cell technology will be the tipping point against the ICE.
Also, AC Propulsions patents on charging will be ending soon. They came up with the idea to use the motor controller for double duty and run it backwards as a charger. Tesla more or less stole this tech through shady deals and call it their own now. Thats how the new model S has 20kW of charging power... They could charge faster, but 20kW is the limit that our grid can take now, and thats pushing it as is. A 240VAC 50A service is only good for 10kW of power.
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Since this thread seems to have meandered into us talking about all kinds of stuff, in the middle of winter, while waiting for Godot, I mean Empulse, I thought I'd share my experience of riding my first electric motorcycle today: a Zero S.
First impression: Sweet! As a builder of a serious electric bicycle, and as a 40 year rider of MC's, I was fairly sure I'd love a real motorcycle that was electric. This was very close, but no cigar.
The sweet part was the enormous amount of silence and smoothness enveloping the experience. It was a magical, flying carpet kind of feeling.
Acceleration from 20 to 65 felt linear as the torque just kept coming on. Nothing like a sport bike, but brisk enough to handle most traffic situations.
Handling was solid, both at speed and in turns. This is a motorcycle.
I like the belt drive vs. a chain. I like the lack of complexity, weight, and service of a transmission.
Negatives:
1) Acceleration of 0 to 20 has been retarded ( :D) by their software after complaints of jerkiness in stop-n-go traffic. It wouldn't do for my need to get ahead of lanes of traffic at stoplights.
2) Brakes were OK, but nothing compared to those on my R1200R or TMax. I want Very Good brakes!
3) The suspension, admittedly totally untuned to me, was on the harsh side. I like pot-hole absorbing cushiness.
4) The seat was too narrow and too hard for my liking. While I'm not a fatazz, I'm definitely an old faht, you know those kind who actually like the Russell Day Long Saddle.
I declined to pay to get on the waiting list for the 2012 release, but I'm eager to try it when I can and compare it to a test ride on the Empulse when I can. Who knows? I'm leaning toward the Empulse for lots of reasons, but Zero's siren call is very much more audible.
Feed us some Empulse tidbits, Brammo. Get us through the dark days of winter. Keep me on your waiting list...
BTW, the salesperson at the dealer definitely harped on the fact that nobody knows when the Empulse will arrive, and they have a history of delays, and it would probably be a long, long time, and they've had several wait list defectors, etc. etc.
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Don't want to start a brand war: just sharing my experience and thoughts as I save toward my goal and sort out my dream.
Thought of one more negative which was odd: the bike didn't seem very responsive to brisk countersteering. I had to use a load of "body english" to make it change directions quickly. It almost felt like there was a huge gyroscope holding a straight line. Probably just a different geometry than I'm used to. My rides lately have consisted of a BMW R1200R, Yamaha TMax, Honda Reflex and they all are quite responsive to being flicked.
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Regarding the Zero's hard, thin, seat: My local Zero dealer says that you can spend a lot of money for the accessory Corbin seat, or for $100, they have a fellow in their shop who will cut down and dish out the stock seat so that it is lower and more comfortable.
I wasn't too sure how reducing the foam on the stock seat could make it more comfortable, but they had a Zero S model on the floor with this modification by their shop and I gave it a try. I was surprised to see that it was a noticeable improvement. Not only were your feet placed flatter on the ground, but it felt more comfortable, as the dishing effect spread the load out on your rear so that you didn't feel so much like sitting on a vinyl covered fence rail.
I give the shop credit for coming up with a reasonably priced solution to the hard and thin stock seat. Putting it on their demonstrator will help to sell the bike, as frankly, the Zero S is not all that comfortable for a street motorcycle.
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... frankly, the Zero S is not all that comfortable for a street motorcycle.
Thanks for that summary comment which solidified my impression.
While never feeling like I had to fight with it to do what I want, there's something about its very lightness that's a little unsettling, a less planted feeling.
It feels it would me more at home off road. It's as if they took the cross version and put some different fenders and tires on it, along with the S designation.
IIRC, the designer was a mountain bike enthusiast, which is sort of what this feels like, albeit a quite magical bike!
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I have a feeling that a large number of Empulse pre-orders will have turned to smoke when the bike finally arrives and it is time to put cash where your typing fingers have been.
exactly, cash that I saved up for the EMPULSE is being spent right now on an ICE. Because with no reassurance from Brammo, I am starting to think its all BS.
We certainly hear and sympathize with the frustration. It's a tough call as Richard alluded to deciding what information to release and when. With a new technology in a high rate of change and a motorcycle market that makes things even more challenging, we opted to keep our heads down until we are sure of the final specification. Rest assured that this does not mean that we haven't been hard at work developing this bike. I remember this frustration well when it was focused on the Enertia - there will be charges of "vaporware", but we'll just keep doing what we do and the naysayers eventually move on or jump on board...
Speaking of smoke... ;)
Empulse DVP1 - March, 2011 (http://vimeo.com/34314354)
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Not a bad burnout ;D. Cant tell if this Empulse utilizes the IET though :(
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Not a bad burnout ;D. Cant tell if this Empulse utilizes the IET though :(
You'll have to take my word for it... that bike has the IET 6-speed. The proof is that the test rider is Samuele Mazzini, CEO of SMRE. You can also hear the motor spin up just a little at the end of the clip after the burnout when the clutch is pulled. We've been testing these IET prototypes since early 2011. This is the problem with releasing information... you always want more! :)
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Andrea True Connection - More More More.wmv (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jni-eDcm6us&feature=related#)
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Sweet burnout... gotta remember to flip off the camera after you're done, though. :)
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You'll have to take my word for it... that bike has the IET 6-speed. The proof is that the test rider is Samuele Mazzini, CEO of SMRE. You can also hear the motor spin up just a little at the end of the clip after the burnout when the clutch is pulled. We've been testing these IET prototypes since early 2011. This is the problem with releasing information... you always want more! :)
OK, so we won't pester you with a ton of questions about this prototype bike. It's good to just even get a tiny bit of information.
But what about that Mazzini guy? How short is he that he has to use a curb to do a burnout?
(oh, I'm goin straight to hell, I can feel it...) ;D
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http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/news/brammo-empulse-testing-six-speed-gearbox/ (http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/news/brammo-empulse-testing-six-speed-gearbox/)
some discussion over at A&R about this...seems some the of facts are confused...I do like that BrammoBrian went over and gave some info...
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BrammoBrian says:
January 4, 2012 at 7:52 AM
I “leaked” (read: posted) that video over on the brammo owner’s forum. This is not a “testament” to the gearbox – just a video of a guy having fun on one of our development prototypes – back in March of last year. The point I was making on said forum is that Brammo’s been in development on the 6-speed for awhile and there’s no e-moto on the market that comes close to the performance. You’ll just have to wait a little longer before all is revealed… sorry.
As this is a development prototype (DVP in Brammo speak), you’re not looking at anywhere near the final design, but I’m very much looking forward to showing that off soon as well!
-Brian.
final design showing soon sounds good to me...I wonder what soon is?
Gavin
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http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/news/brammo-empulse-testing-six-speed-gearbox/ (http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/news/brammo-empulse-testing-six-speed-gearbox/)
some discussion over at A&R about this...seems some the of facts are confused...I do like that BrammoBrian went over and gave some info...
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BrammoBrian says:
January 4, 2012 at 7:52 AM
I “leaked” (read: posted) that video over on the brammo owner’s forum. This is not a “testament” to the gearbox – just a video of a guy having fun on one of our development prototypes – back in March of last year. The point I was making on said forum is that Brammo’s been in development on the 6-speed for awhile and there’s no e-moto on the market that comes close to the performance. You’ll just have to wait a little longer before all is revealed… sorry.
As this is a development prototype (DVP in Brammo speak), you’re not looking at anywhere near the final design, but I’m very much looking forward to showing that off soon as well!
-Brian.
final design showing soon sounds good to me...I wonder what soon is?
Gavin
The same nay-sayers as usual. Sad that some of these guys find it necessary to spread FUD almost entirely based on assumptions about the new technologies discussed in the article.
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However, with todays battery tech. The hottest pack you can put into one of these bikes is A123 20Ah pouch cells and your only going to get ~12kWh before it starts becoming too heavy.
I wanted to revisit this with respect to the BPM 44/70 modules (http://brammoforum.com/index.php?topic=425.msg6629#msg6629).
I only found one datasheet (PDF) (http://info.a123systems.com/Default.aspx?app=LeadgenDownload&shortpath=docs%2fa123+systems+amp20+data+sheet.pdf) for a 20Ah pouch cell on A123's site. Maybe it's a high-power chemistry, but it lists the specific energy at 131 Wh/kg.
BrammoBrian hints that the BPM cells are somewhere between 190 and 250 Wh/kg.
The Empulse (placeholder?) specs list the 6.0, 8.0, 10.0 kwh bikes at 360, 390, 420 lbs respectively. If we assume the only difference between the bikes is the battery pack, then the total pack specific energy is around 150 Wh/kg.
2012 Zero S ZF9 is 7.9 kWh nominal, 341 lbs. ZF6 is 5.3 kWh nominal, 297 lbs; pack specific energy is around 130 Wh/kg.
Assuming the Empulse placeholder specs are accurate, then (ignoring packaging) an Empulse 20.0 with current batteries should weigh around 570 lbs. That's a heavy bike, but nothing like the 700-800 lb full dressers.
Pricing on a 20 kwh model would be stupid right now at retail $1000/kwh. Actual cell cost seems to float between $300-500/kwh depending on whose numbers you believe.. I figure as the bikes are produced in volume we'll see retail pricing on the large packs drop down closer to actual material costs. A 2015 Empulse 20.0 kwh might look something like 200 wh/kg pack, 520 lbs, 80 kw motor, $14-15k retail pricing.
TTXGP and IOM will be interesting this year to see how much pack people are able to cram into their bikes..
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protomech -- Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Brammo changed batteries since they first announced the 360, 390, 420 weights?
I just keep being really suspicious about those weights. They look too round, and too out-of-date to invest anything into them. Just a couple of kilo's here and there, and all the the sudden they are back somewhere in the 190 to 250 Wh/kg range, or way down to Zero's 130 Wh/kg range.
The problem with an Empulse 20.0 is the actual physical space limitations. I just don't see the room for the battery packs at this point. The batteries would have to go from 150 Wh/kg to 300 Wh/kg to have much chance at fitting in the same dimensions (assuming the same density of mass). I know there was some chatter about an Empulse 12.0, because of the RR's battery pack, but realistically I don't think anything bigger than a 14.0 could be done by 2015.
But I'll be happy to let the Brammo guys surprise me for being too conservative!
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Well they did double the power in the Enertia inthe same space...Enertia classic has 3.1, the Enertia Plus has 6.2 and in the same amount of space...so it might be possible...but too costly now...I give it 3 to 4 years and we will see an Empulse 20 for about the same price as the current 10....
Gavin
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It does bring up the concept of Brammo naming...
For the Enertia it is fine to have the Classic and the Plus...but where does it go next?
And for the Empulse...it is already a question...6, 8, 10...12, 14, etc etc...
So should Brammo... keep with adding a number at the end that is based on battery power or based on range.
Enertia 3, Enertia 6, Enertia 9, Enertia 12 etc etc
Empulse 6, 8, 10....12, 14, etc
Or by mileage...
Enertia 40, 80....120, 160---personally I look forward to updating to an Enertia 160 :)
Empulse 60, 80, 100....I do like Empulse 200 more than Empulse 20.
I do think the average consumer might understand a number based on mileage more...and I kinda like the bigger numbers...
Gavin
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I just keep being really suspicious about those weights. They look too round, and too out-of-date ...
I agree. These weights have pre-dated the IET and new batteries news as well as more likely changes to the prototypes. Before the Enertia Classic was released, a change in the final production weight was one of the last pieces of information released.
Protomech is using the change in weights between the bikes to estimate, so I think it works.
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Or by mileage...I do think the average consumer might understand a number based on mileage more...and I kinda like the bigger numbers...
I think mileage is tricky because it varies by rider and scenario. You can be heavy, ride a bunch of hills in cold weather really fast with the wind going against you or be light, ride on a flat backroad in hot weather really slow with the wind at your back.
I agree that people do want a simple way to differentiate the different bikes.
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protomech -- Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Brammo changed batteries since they first announced the 360, 390, 420 weights?
I just keep being really suspicious about those weights. They look too round, and too out-of-date to invest anything into them. Just a couple of kilo's here and there, and all the the sudden they are back somewhere in the 190 to 250 Wh/kg range, or way down to Zero's 130 Wh/kg range.
Nope, you're absolutely right. Those specs were released as soon as the Empulse was announced, and I suspect the actual specs will be similar but not identical.
We'll see what the actual weight of the packs is once the bikes are released.
BrammoBrian did say:
There is no EV battery pack in production today that boasts a higher specific energy that that of the Brammo BPM 44/70.
There's a lower bound on the battery pack specific energy of 120 Wh/kg to beat the Tesla Roadster's (3 years ago! wow!) Very likely it is higher, but no way to know for now. And specs are often not aligned with reality, anyhow.
The problem with an Empulse 20.0 is the actual physical space limitations. I just don't see the room for the battery packs at this point. The batteries would have to go from 150 Wh/kg to 300 Wh/kg to have much chance at fitting in the same dimensions (assuming the same density of mass). I know there was some chatter about an Empulse 12.0, because of the RR's battery pack, but realistically I don't think anything bigger than a 14.0 could be done by 2015.
But I'll be happy to let the Brammo guys surprise me for being too conservative!
Right. Packaging is a big issue.
One hint is Panasonic's 18650 cells that I mentioned earlier. They have a 2.9Ah and 3.1Ah cell currently, Panasonic expects to be producing a 3.4Ah cell prior to March 2012, and a 4.0Ah cell prior to March 2013.
All of these are in the same form factor, an 18mm diameter / 65mm length cylindrical cell. The specific energy Wh/kg goes up a bit, but what actually happens is the weight of the cell goes up from the 2.9Ah to the 4.0Ah cell. Volume stays the same, energy goes up a lot, weight goes up a little.
No idea if we'll see a similar effect as lithium batteries continue to evolve. But it's good for racing!
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Or by mileage...
Enertia 40, 80....120, 160---personally I look forward to updating to an Enertia 160 :)
Empulse 60, 80, 100....I do like Empulse 200 more than Empulse 20.
I do think the average consumer might understand a number based on mileage more...and I kinda like the bigger numbers...
Naming the bikes based upon range would be the same as handing a 20-lb sledge hammer to every anti-EV bonehead out there, and telling them to take all the free swings at Brammo that they want. It would produce an endless stream of internet comments along this line:
"I rode a Brammo 100 once, and I only got 30 miles of burnouts, wheelies, 0-100 launches, and 100 MPG top speed runs on the track. Brammo 100? More like a Brammo 30! Brammo are liars. Brammo sucks. In the real world, e-motos just don't work. We should wait for hydrogen powered motorcycles."
Top Gear already did that exact same hack piece on the Tesla Roadster when they "tested" it. (And by "tested", I mean "followed the pre-written script").
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Right. Packaging is a big issue.
One hint is Panasonic's 18650 cells that I mentioned earlier. They have a 2.9Ah and 3.1Ah cell currently, Panasonic expects to be producing a 3.4Ah cell prior to March 2012, and a 4.0Ah cell prior to March 2013.
All of these are in the same form factor, an 18mm diameter / 65mm length cylindrical cell. The specific energy Wh/kg goes up a bit, but what actually happens is the weight of the cell goes up from the 2.9Ah to the 4.0Ah cell. Volume stays the same, energy goes up a lot, weight goes up a little.
No idea if we'll see a similar effect as lithium batteries continue to evolve. But it's good for racing!
Thanks for the confirmation on weights and battery pack changes.
It sounds like if we're looking at keeping the same physical volume (dimensions) in order to fit the same space in the bike, the weight isn't really a factor. Because the weight of each cell can increase, and each cell will still take up the same amount of space. Weight will impact overall performance, but it won't impact how many cells you can fit into a fixed space. The space limitation is a bigger wall for next-generation Empulses than the weight limitation, so we can just throw out looking at weight and Wh/kg ratings, and concentrate on Ah ratings.
Has it been said anywhere what cells Brammo is using in their latest battery pack? Are they Panasonic 18650's? My memory is going...
Just for sake of comparison, if Panasonic is at ~3 Ah now, then they would need to increase to ~6 Ah rated 18650 batteries to double the capacity of a battery pack using the same amount of space. If Brammo is currently using something similar to the ~3 Ah Panasonic's, then with the equivalent of the 4.0 Ah cells in 2013, Brammo could go from 10.0 to nearly 14.0 in time for 2014 MY Empulse's.
To make a leap, if Panasonic is able to increase capacity by .5 Ah each year (guestimate based upon the dates you posted) then somewhere around 5-6 years from now they could have 6 Ah 18650 cells. If Brammo's battery packs followed the same trajectory, we're talking about somewhere around 2017-ish or 2018-ish for an Empulse 20.0? (This of course assumes no new huge revolutionary battery technology, and no laws of physics blocking further battery development progress.)
An Empulse 20.0 by 2017/2018 actually isn't as bad as I first thought. Some of the extra battery power could be used to increased acceleration and top speed, and the rest to increasing range. That would put it in the same sort of range as the Model S in the EV-car world (but faster).
I'm just glad that even an Empulse 8.0 will be plenty of battery for my needs, and I won't have to wait that long!
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At one time Brammo planned to use Leyden Energy cells. I believe that has since fallen through; no idea whether they're using cylindrical cells or pouches or large format prismatic cells internally. Would like to know : )
However, let's not let lack of knowledge get in the way of making assumptions! Cylindrical cells, GO.
Valence's U1-12XP modules are 110 Wh/L.
We've seen the Enertia cutaway (http://brammoelectricmotorcycles.smugmug.com/Electric-Motorcycles/Brammo-Enertia/12994043_jhddTr#!i=1162942799&k=DB8j8) a few times, so we can make some guesses as to how many cells are in the U1-12XP.
(http://brammoelectricmotorcycles.smugmug.com/Electric-Motorcycles/Brammo-Enertia/Cut-Away/1162942799_DB8j8-M.jpg)
A configuration like this:
. . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . .
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. . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . . .
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. . . . . .
stacked two-high gives us 122 cells (2 * (6 * 6 + 5 * 5)). Probably 120 cells with a bit of padding.
U1-12XP outer dimensions (PDF) (http://www.valence.com/sites/default/files/images/XP_Module_Datasheet__1.pdf) are 197x131x182mm LxWxH. Excluding tabs and padding, the cell configuration is around 174x108x130mm.
12.8V 40Ah for the module is likely 4S 30P, meaning the 18650 cells are 3.2V 1.3Ah, or around 260 Wh/L.
Brammo's 44/70 module is 44.4V 70Ah, which works nicely out to 12S. Their module is 3x as large as Valence's; they can probably pack a few more than 3x as many given the larger module, but perhaps they use extra space for cooling or management. Call it 360 18650 cells, which produces a pack of 12S 30P. 3.7V 2.33Ah 18650s, around 525 Wh/L for the cells. The module is approximately twice as dense as Valence's, so let's say 220 Wh/L for the entire module.
Panasonic's prior-to-FY-2013 4.0Ah cells claim 800 Wh/L. They claim that date to be for volume production too. That's already a 60% gain in the same space as the 2012 Empulse.
Nikkei Electronics (http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/HONSHI/20100223/180545/) has a chart showing a 11% average annual increase in (Panasonic?) 18650 Ah capacity from 1994 to 2009. They also show an 18% annual increase with Panasonic's new anode material. I don't know if they're simply extrapolating from the two data points available or if they have reason to expect a higher annual growth rate.
Either way, we'll probably see 1000 Wh/L cells in volume production by 2015-2016. Those cells should enable a doubling in pack capacity in the same volume as the 2012 bikes. Granted, huge amount of assumptions here..
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The cases look like they would hold pouches to me...
But then again it could hold Cylinders too....easily...
My mind keeps seeing pouches though...probably from my time obsessing over the LEAF battery pack.
Plus the pouches just look cool...like freezed dried Astronaut food you buy at the Air and Space Museum in D.C.
Gavin
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Perhaps Brammo is planning on using that same 44/70 pack in the Empulse. 3 of them would yield 9.3kWh right? Would it not make sense to use the same pack as much as possible? Now that we know Brammo is no longer using the Leyden cells perhaps the battery specs will change as well. I think there were rumors that Brammo was going to drop the 6.0 and 8.0, so just a single Empulse model would not need the 10.0 designation. Just speculation... BTW what cells do they use in the RR?
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The original specs for the 6.0, 8.0, and 10.0 were as follows:
6.0 88.8V, assumed 67Ah
8.0 88.8V, assumed 90Ah
10.0 111V, assumed 90Ah
I suppose the Empulse 6.0 would use the same configuration of cells as the Enertia Plus; possibly even the same modules, which would represent a visual change from the four gold prismatic modules that are exposed in the Empulse Concept.
It makes sense for Brammo to re-use the same cells (if not modules) where possible. Re-using 3 BPM 44/70s in series would give a 133V 70Ah pack. You could reconfigure the modules to be 88.8V 35Ah each, or an an 88.8V 105Ah pack.
I'd love to know if the 6.0 and 8.0 configurations are still on target.
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When I was at the Scuderia West Brammo-day last summer, I spoke with one of the "suits" there and he told me that they were building their own batteries at the Oregon plant using Chinese-made lithium pouches. He said that they had a special room full of safety equipment in case things got out of hand during the assembly process. Of course, it is quite possible that Brammo was just giving building their own batteries a try for testing purposes and are going to buy them from a big manufacturer, such as Panasonic, for the production bikes.
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I believe that was well after they switched away from Leyden Energy, so it is very likely that they are using pouch cells then in the shipping 2012 Brammos.
However, I think it's reasonable to assume both that pouch cells with similar chemistry and sophistication will be in the same ballpark Wh/kg and Wh/L as cylindrical cells, and that we should expect to see similar growth.
The dates and figures might be off a little, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were fairly accurate.
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...let's not let lack of knowledge get in the way of making assumptions! Cylindrical cells, GO....
Nikkei Electronics (http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/HONSHI/20100223/180545/) has a chart showing a 11% average annual increase in (Panasonic?) 18650 Ah capacity from 1994 to 2009. They also show an 18% annual increase with Panasonic's new anode material. I don't know if they're simply extrapolating from the two data points available or if they have reason to expect a higher annual growth rate.
If facts were allowed to get in the way, the entire internet would collapse. ;D
I'd never seen that link before to the Panasonic info. Especially this part:
"Si alloy has a theoretical capacity at least ten times greater than the graphite now most commonly used in anodes"
In other words, their current ~3 Ah battery could theoretically grow to be a 30 Ah battery using the same amount of space. We do know that Tesla is using a Panasonic variant. At 18% improvement per year, it would take around 15 years to get to the theoretical max. But that kind of improvement would turn the 300 mile Model S into a 3,000 mile Model S. That's crazy stuff to think about.
Here is what 18% per year would do to the Model S range starting from a 300 mile baseline:
1 354 miles
2 418
3 492
4 581
5 686
6 809
7 955
8 1,127
9 1,330
10 1,570
That's doubling range in 5 years, and FIVE times the range on the same number of batteries in just a decade. Now I know why Musk has that famous smirk/half smile. He's going to make a killing just sitting back and letting Panasonic do all the hard work developing better and better batteries every year. Even if Panasonic only gets half way to the theoretical max, it will be a complete game changer.
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Perhaps Brammo is planning on using that same 44/70 pack in the Empulse. 3 of them would yield 9.3kWh right? Would it not make sense to use the same pack as much as possible? Now that we know Brammo is no longer using the Leyden cells perhaps the battery specs will change as well. I think there were rumors that Brammo was going to drop the 6.0 and 8.0, so just a single Empulse model would not need the 10.0 designation. Just speculation... BTW what cells do they use in the RR?
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/09/business/la-fi-brammo-empulse-ims-20111207 (http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/09/business/la-fi-brammo-empulse-ims-20111207)
The 9.7-kilowatt-hour lithium ion battery pack will rate between 9.5 and 10 in the production version, Bramscher said.
You're right about dropping the 10.0 from the name. The Latimes article doesn't mention any other configuration than the 10kwh bike. BrammoBrian doesn't mention any charge time over than the 10kwh charge time in the J1772 comment. Will have to watch carefully.
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Ah OK, 9.7 not 9.3 so probably not the same 44/70 packs.
There is a quote from Craig Bramscher out there that says something along the lines that 90% of pre-orders were for the 10.0 so the 6.0 and 8.0 would be dropped. Probably another reason the Engage (Street) has taken the $12k price point too.
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Brammo, Inc.: Order #1590 notification
Just pre-ordered my Brammo Empulse 10 on 10th January and await news of the final bike specifications and when production will start.
They stated they take the $1000 non refunable deposit 3mths prior to expected bike delivery date.
Anyone been asked for their deposits yet?
Anyone have any idea how many bikes they plan to produce per month?
So am I sitting tight like everyone else in the pre-order queue.....
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I haven't heard a peep from Brammo since I pre-ordered an Empulse 10.0 in July of 2010. :(
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I haven't heard a peep from Brammo since I pre-ordered an Empulse 10.0 in July of 2010. :(
I also placed my order back in July 2010 and have been patiently waiting since. I have 14k burning a hole in my pocket and was hoping to be riding by this summer. Im going nuts waiting on any news... checking the forums every hour, on the hour for any new news... its pathetic, I know.
BTW, welcome to the forum BrammoAddict!
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Brammo, Inc.: Order #1590 notification
Just pre-ordered my Brammo Empulse 10 on 10th January and await news of the final bike specifications and when production will start.
They stated they take the $1000 non refunable deposit 3mths prior to expected bike delivery date.
Anyone been asked for their deposits yet?
Anyone have any idea how many bikes they plan to produce per month?
Brammo claims the Hungary Flextronics line can produce up to 660 bikes per month. That's Enertia, Enertia Plus, and Empulse combined I believe.
http://www.brammo.com/press-releases/article.php?id=68 (http://www.brammo.com/press-releases/article.php?id=68)
I expect we'll see final specifications before anyone is asked for deposits. I maintain hope that Brammo is a rational actor and will be releasing final specifications no later than the end of February..
So am I sitting tight like everyone else in the pre-order queue.....
Yep. We're all sitting huddled around the fire chewing over each scrap of information released from Brammo : )
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They stated they take the $1000 non refunable deposit 3mths prior to expected bike delivery date.
Anyone been asked for their deposits yet?
No, not yet. This will be HUGE news on this forum when it happens. We are all hoping it will be soon as many of us are expecting deliveries to be made in the summer of this year.
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Pricing on a 20 kwh model would be stupid right now at retail $1000/kwh. Actual cell cost seems to float between $300-500/kwh depending on whose numbers you believe.. I figure as the bikes are produced in volume we'll see retail pricing on the large packs drop down closer to actual material costs. A 2015 Empulse 20.0 kwh might look something like 200 wh/kg pack, 520 lbs, 80 kw motor, $14-15k retail pricing.
Couple things to note here:
Tesla's Model S pricing is pretty interesting: 40 kwh, 60 kwh, 85 kwh models (http://www.teslamotors.com/models/options) are available, as well as an 85 kwh (nominal?) performance model.
Considering the non-performance models, each tier costs an additional $10k. Assuming that Tesla's battery costs are AT MOST equal to pricing, then the 40 to 60 kwh upgrade is $500/kwh, and the 60 to 85 kwh upgrade is $400/kwh.
There's much more at play in determining pricing for different pack sizes beyond just the cell costs (and design considerations may drive the selection of a cell that is more expensive per kwh), but the next generation of bikes after the Empulse and 2012 Zeros should offer significantly larger packs with a smaller upgrade cost (currently $1000/kwh and $960/kwh respectively).
DOE Secretary Dr. Steven Chu suggests that we will see costs (http://energy.gov/articles/secretary-chus-remarks-detroit-economic-club-prepared-delivery) for a 40 mile PHEV battery (say the 16 kwh Chevy Volt?) drop from $12k in 2008 to $3600 in 2015 and $1500 in 2020. That's $750/kwh in 2008 down to $225/kwh in 2015 and < $100/kwh in 2020.
Overall, the Department of Energy is partnering with industry to reduce the manufacturing cost of advanced batteries. While a typical battery for a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with a 40-mile electric range cost $12,000 in 2008, we’re on track to demonstrate technology by 2015 that would reduce the cost to $3,600. And last year, we set a goal of demonstrating technology by 2020 that would further reduce the cost to $1,500 – an accomplishment that could help spur the mass-market adoption of electric vehicles.
We live in interesting times!
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We live in interesting times indeed!
Just consider how long the technology of the lead-acid battery stayed the same for well over a hundred years and now battery capacity seems to be doubling every few years - with no end in sight. The only irritating thing for the consumer is that when you buy a new electric vehicle, the next new model will considerably outperform the one that you just bought. Talk about depreciation! Just think about the people who bought a $10K 2009 Zero, or a $10 2010 Zero, or a $10K 2011 Zero, every time a new version comes out, you can hardly give the older model away.
When I went to look at the new 2012 Zero in my dealer's showroom, they had 5 new 2011 Zeros parked next to it. Let me see, should I buy a 2011 Zero, with a top speed of about 65 mph and a typical range of about 25 miles, for $10,000, or a 2012 Zero with a higher speed and two to three times the range for $11,500, or $14,000. ::)
At least when you buy a Brammo, you can probably expect the design and technology to remain stable for a couple of years, thereby securing your investment for a while. It can be a tough decision. Do you buy now or wait for the next big improvement in the technology?
Interesting times! :)
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I really like what Zero has to offer, cool stuff but I am gonna wait for the Empulse, then Im DONE waiting. I have waited long enough. Once I get my Empulse I really do plan on keeping it for the long run, at least 5 years. I dont need to wait for improved battery technology as 100 miles is much more than I will ride 99% of the time, and when Im done riding, the bike will be plugged in and ready to go the next day. Heck I would have been set with the 8.0 but I doubt that will be an option. The wait has been a major drag, but I know it will be worth it... would love to hear something new from Brammo though *hint hint* :)