"Would you buy stock in Brammo?"

[Brammofan]

http://www.sustainablebusinessoregon.com/poll/poll/8877352?ana=twt

Would you buy stock in a Brammo IPO?

 

• Yes, they're the hottest EV maker right now.
• Maybe, I'd have to see a compelling business strategy.
• No, IPOs are in the weeds right now. It's all hype.
• Other (Leave your answer as a comment.)

This survey is not a scientific sampling, but offers a quick view of what readers are thinking

Now, go there, answer the poll, then come back here and discuss.

[Phantom]

I voted Yes.

I certainly would. I originally bought Valance Battery stock once I knew Brammo was using them in the Enertia a few years back. Brammo has since switched battery suppliers, but my prediction of Brammo's success led to my previous investment decision, as well as my future investment decision; once they go IPO.

[skuzzle]

No.  There is no evidence that there's enough of a market at the Empulse R's price point to be profitable.  As a public company they would no longer be able to get by on hype and missed production dates.  I don't think shareholders would be as patient as people who are on the Empulse preorderlist.  On the other hand, if they do an IPO in a couple of years after production is going strong and sales are good then the answer would be "yes".

[860]

Well, the poll was specifically would you buy Brammo IPO shares.  Technically, none of us would ever be able to buy IPO shares at the IPO price because only insiders are allowed to buy IPO shares.  All we could ever do would be to buy shares in the secondary market at market value from all the insiders who actually bought the IPO shares at the IPO price.

I would buy IPO shares at the IPO price, if I were somehow to become an insider.

I would not buy IPO shares in the secondary market right after the IPO.  That is a sucker's buy, because hype makes the price too volatile for long term investment.

I would accumulate shares in Brammo after the IPO hype was over IF Brammo were delivering product and was showing profit potential.

[EmpulseRider]

Well, the poll was specifically would you buy Brammo IPO shares.  Technically, none of us would ever be able to buy IPO shares at the IPO price because only insiders are allowed to buy IPO shares.  All we could ever do would be to buy shares in the secondary market at market value from all the insiders who actually bought the IPO shares at the IPO price.

I would buy IPO shares at the IPO price, if I were somehow to become an insider.

I would not buy IPO shares in the secondary market right after the IPO.  That is a sucker's buy, because hype makes the price too volatile for long term investment.

I would accumulate shares in Brammo after the IPO hype was over IF Brammo were delivering product and was showing profit potential.

At first I was thinking, absolutely, yes... but further thought, and past experience with IPOs tells me that this would indeed be a bad move for the reasons stated here. I have a love hate thing going on with wallstreet, and IPOs in general fall under the hate category... that said, I would be Brammo long after the IPO nonsense is over with.

[protomech]

I wouldn't buy stock in a Brammo IPO. I don't understand how IPOs operate and I don't gamble with things I don't understand at all.

I think Brammo has a better chance of being around in 10 years than Zero, but a worse chance of being around in two years. Brammo is making a bunch of long-term plans that will hopefully serve them very well (partnerships with Flextronics, Polaris, SMRE, HKPD) .. but they have to survive in the interim.

To date they have successfully brought a single product to market, the Enertia in 2009. Brammo says Enertia Plus and Empulse should be out very soon .. we continue to hope.

Speaking very generally, I believe the E+ and the Empulse R are better values than the 2012 Zero S bikes .. but I don't know how many bikes they will sell. They're being released much later and much more expensive than expected in the tail end of a year where Zero has already captured a good number of sales. A 2013 Zero refresh is surely forthcoming, and Zero has enough advance notice to ensure its bikes are competitively positioned with respect to Brammo.

I would guess Brammo and Zero both are burning around $10M/year in operational expenses. Brammo's recent $13M funding round may buy them a year. An IPO might buy them more time. But eventually both companies have to start turning a profit based on sales. Selling 200-400 bikes/year is not going to keep either of them afloat.

Answering the subject question.. I would rather buy a product from an EV company than stock in an EV company.

[EmpulseRider]

I think they will be most successful picking up as many fleet sales as possible... for law enforcement these bikes are perfect for city patrolling. Retail sales would be just icing on the cake.

[Deadly Silent Ninja]

I think they will be most successful picking up as many fleet sales as possible... for law enforcement these bikes are perfect for city patrolling. Retail sales would be just icing on the cake.

I agree that getting these bulk sales will be the best for Brammo, financially speaking. They bring both volume sales and long-term service agreements.

The only problem I see is, while they have to press on to get those bulk orders delivered, people in the pre-order lists get pushed to the end of the line (after bulk orders, journalists and testers).

I really hope they get a few bikes in the hands of individual consumers before it starts to get cold. As protomech said, Zero is not waiting and Zero is also bringing in new bikes in 2013 to compete with the 2012 Brammos. I don't see Brammo making any improvement in 2013, so the competition starts to get very close. At least in the individual consumer market, that is.