A turning point??

[Gavin]

Well today I had a bit of a shock from the misses....(keep those dirty thoughts out of your heads, boys...It was automobile related).

Background. My wife drives a 1999 Toyota Camry that she loves, but A) she wants a new car that will be better for taking the dogs on trips and such and B) she wants better gas mileage.

So for some time she has been wanting a small SUV, but in a hybrid. She has be lamenting that neither the Toyota RAV4 nor Honda CRV is a hybrid. She was looking at the Ford Escape and all the new 2013 SUVs coming out that get better mileage than her Camry (Ford Escape, Honda CRV, Mazda CX5 and Mits Outlander Sport)...but she really wanted a hybrid that got closer to 40 mpg or better. The Prius V intrigued her until she saw it...she dislikes station wagons.

I had, a few months ago, tried to push her toward a plug-in hybrid as we have all that nice solar on the roof and she has a daily commute of less than 10 miles (she does need a car as she is a school nurse and covers two schools...she did bicycle a few times, but it was not doable on a consistent basis). But she didn't like the increased price, nor the very very few models available--and non in SUVish form.

So this morning I mentioned that the Mazda CX5 would be at the local dealerships at the end of this month and she should take it for a test drive.

She said, "No, I want to get a plug-in." I was like, HUH? She said, "Yeah, gas prices are just going to explode and I think I could probably use almost no gas if I get a plug-in."

Tipping Point.

If my wife went from, I want a Hybrid to I want a plug in hybrid, well I think the average person is going to go from I want gas to I want a Hybrid.

Soon almost every car will be at least a hybrid. It will become the norm and expected. With the "greener" people then going plug in...and the greenest people going BEV.

So now my wife is waiting to check out the Ford CMax later this spring (I hope) and if she can stomach the borderline station wagon look, she will get one. If not, she is waiting on the Mits Outlander plugin coming next spring.

She is still confused and pissed that neither the Ford Escape, Toyota RAV4 nor Honda CRV come in a plug in as those are the three she is most interested in...heck even the Escape is no longer coming in hybrid form with the 2013 reboot...

But I think we will shortly see everything other than muscle cars come in hybrid form.

Gavin

[protomech]

The hybrid price delta for a conventional car (camry, fusion) is about $2000. In a world of $3/gal gas, 30 mpg base and 30% hybrid fuel savings, the hybrid system pays for itself in about 70k miles - well within the period that many people keep their vehicles. Gas goes up? Pays for itself more quickly. Keep the car for 10-15 years? Most Prius owners since the 1999 introduction have never replaced their battery.

Those price deltas will only go down once the hybrid model is the standard model. The Buick Lacrosse and the Lincoln MKS base models are hybrid. We'll see more of this.

The 50 mpg Prius C starting at $19k is absolutely going to clean up. Toyota will sell every one of them they make, which won't be many since they're building them at first in Japan. Once they move production here they will be flying out the doors.

The plugin hybrid payback is a bit more questionable in strictly financial terms - eg Prius Plug vs a conventional Prius is a $4500 cost add. A standard Prius at $3/gal gas and 50 mpg costs $900 to drive 15k miles in a year; if the plugin halves that cost, it still takes 10 years to payback.

Where the plugin does make sense is in providing some level of security against future gas price hikes. When you only put one 10 gallon tank¹ in the car each month, it doesn't much matter if gas costs $3/gal or $6/gal if the tank costs $30 or $60, when you do the bulk of your driving on $24 in electricity. Compare to say 3 14 gallon tanks², $126 vs $252.

¹500 gas miles at 50 mpg, 60 * 12 = 720 electric miles. At 300 wh/mi, your electric bill goes up by 216 kwh per month. At the national average rate of $0.11/kwh you pay an extra $24.

²1220 gas miles at 29 mpg

[protomech]

I don't think plug-in hybrid vs BEV is just a matter of "green". It's more a question of whether a limited range car makes sense. For a single car household, maybe not. For a two or more car household (I'm single and own two cars and a bike), having a battery vehicle which you do the majority of your driving with makes a lot of sense.

I'm surprised your wife likes the RAV4 but dislikes the Prius V. RAV4 has 1.8" more ground clearance, rides a little higher, has the same cargo and passenger room, costs about $1000 less, uses about 75% more fuel. Is her primary objection a styling thing?

[Gavin]

A) yes that Prius C is going KILL...hopefully more and more cars like it come out when everyone sees them flying off the lots.

B) mmmm, wife..."a stylish thing"?...yes, kinda, though more about STYLE than STYLISH...she isn't all about looks....she does drive a 1999 Camry...not a "looker" car...she just dislikes the look of a station wagon...and the V is not a plug in....but she is considering the C-Max energi...so she might come around to the station wagon look....

Gavin

[Gavin]

And I am hoping to get her to rethink the Prius plug in....part of it is she has this mythical beast of a car in her head...

her Camry gets 25 miles to the gallon...she doesn't want to just move up to 30 mpg...she wanted 40 or more...and now she wants no gas for daily use and occasional gas for trips...all along with the ability to throw a couch in the back...

that is hard to find


One market I think is missing is the EV/Plug-in small pick-up...give me an EV Subaru Brat and I would be happy...People don't really use a small pick-up to travel across country...but as both a daily commuter and as a vehicle to hit the home depot, that electric small pick up would be killer...

Gavin

[Gavin]

I don't think plug-in hybrid vs BEV is just a matter of "green". It's more a question of whether a limited range car makes sense. For a single car household, maybe not. For a two or more car household (I'm single and own two cars and a bike), having a battery vehicle which you do the majority of your driving with makes a lot of sense.

Yes...Greenest was a "worrysome" comment for me...But I do kinda stand by it...

A) The Greenest of people don't live 80 miles from their work...they move close to their job.
B) The Greenest of people do like you mention (and I plan to for our house)...A plug-in for trips, an EV only for commuting....or like me, bicycle and EV motorcycle for commuting.

But a "green" house doesn't need a gas only car, nor two Plug-ins...And I hope that in the near future we are not talking "green" house anymore...just "normal" house, or "smart" house as Plug-ins and EVs became financially beneficial...because of course that is the day EVs will rule, the day they are actually cheaper to own than a gas car....

nowhere near that now...but maybe sooner than we think if batteries really get below 200 bucks a kWh  like Musk says, and when gas really gets up near five bucks a gallon like speculation is calling for soon...

Gavin

[protomech]

I don't think gas will stay at $5/gal for any reasonable period of time in the near future, at least as a national average. We're in the mid $3's and people are buying smaller and more efficient. At $4/gal people will press lawmakers to reduce taxes on gas (and they'll play a shell game and put them somewhere else). At $5/gal we'll likely nationalize the oil companies and start bringing new technologies into play that weren't competitive with $3/gal gas.

We're never going to run out of gas. We have run out of cheap and easy gas.

[Gavin]

reduce the tax...gah, I hope not...right now the gas tax is insanely low...

Now take over of the gas companies...I like that idea

But can you imagine the bitchfest that will cause....

And I agree...we won't run out of gas, we will just be replacing it...luckily I live in a state where I can replace gas with solar...not every state can...but some will with hydro, some solar, some wind, some tidal...etc etc...but gasoline will be replaced with various forms of electricity...until electricity is replaced by fusion or some other wild advance like capturing miniature black holes to power our homes and cars...

Gavin

[craigq]

...until electricity is replaced by fusion or some other wild advance like capturing miniature black holes to power our homes and cars...

On that note, here's an interesting short story 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clockwork_Atom_Bomb
Free PDF Download: http://www.booktrust.org.uk/usr/library/documents/short-stories/green.pdf

[Brammofan]

Thanks craig... that looks pretty cool.

I was on another site (can't recall which one right now) and some guy wanted to buy an Enertia and have a gas generator "back up".  All this talk about black holes and fusion makes me think that it's time to find the next John Galt or a suitable Stirling Generator.

[Richard230]

Speaking about electric vehicles, I rode my electric motorcycle to the dentist today and while I was bragging about my new ride, my dentist told me that both she and her each husband drive Leaves (that is the plural of Leaf, isn't it?) and are very happy with them. (I'll bet my dental checkup bill has gone up since last year.)

She also told me that a friend of hers works as a firefighter in Alameda and also drives a Leaf to work. But the fire department got upset about her plugging the Leaf into their electrical outlet and made her buy and install an electrical meter and they send her the bill every month.

Electric vehicles are making rapid inroads around here, but it seems like not everyone appreciates supporting their use.

I then stopped by my former workplace and one of my former coworkers mentioned to me that the City of South San Francisco has recently opened up a parking garage on Miller Avenue and installed EV power charging stations in the garage. I was told that their use was free at this time.

[FreepZ]

She also told me that a friend of hers works as a firefighter in Alameda and also drives a Leaf to work. But the fire department got upset about her plugging the Leaf into their electrical outlet and made her buy and install an electrical meter and they send her the bill every month.

Any idea what that bill turns out to be every month? Is it something like $10 or more like $100? I suspect that it would be pretty low, but it all depends on how much she is charging. At least they let her do that, rather than simply not letting her charge at all.

I know that for my commute, which is very short, I would be using about $2 per month.

Personally, I would be happy to pay for the electricity that I use -- it's going to be a lot cheaper than using gas anyway -- as long as the rates are similar to standard residential rates. There are pay charge points that are popping up all over Florida, but their rates are pretty ridiculous. As one reviewer put it:

$3/hour rip off. One 40 mile Volt charge would be $12, vs. one 40 mile gallon of gas for $3.40 next door.

I hope that more reasonable price schemes will be available in the near future.

[00049 (AKA SopFu)]

The longer she can wait, the better the cars will be in terms of fuel efficiency.  I totally agree that "hybrids" as we know them today will become the norm.  Even non-hybrids are implementing some of their technology now - like start-stop, and making fuel-burning technologies better - GDI, turbos, etc.  Now is really not the time to buy if you are going for efficiency, though.

I'll throw this out just for kicks, but you may want to consider leasing for two years, and then getting your super-green car after the lease runs out.  That way she gets to trade in her old beater, gets the SUV she wants, a low payment since it'll be a low mileage lease, and the opportunity to get the next generation of green vehicle once they come out.  If leasing is too wasteful, consider getting a used car to get by.

[Shinysideup]

I don't think gas will stay at $5/gal for any reasonable period of time in the near future, at least as a national average.

Unless, of course, Iran or another desperado, does something weird in the Middle East and it has anything to to with the Straits of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.

 But then nothing weird and desperate ever happens in that part of the world.