$20k would still be a bit of a surprise... they had an extra year to dial in suppliers and refine the production model and manufacturing process. The batteries should be cheaper than they would have been a year prior... and I read somewhere that they get the cells from china. <- not sure about that though. So either they aim to maximize profit, or keep the price low and sell in volume. Im hoping the latter... They really need to stick close to the 14k price point for the "base" model.
Batteries should be less than $500/kWh in volume for the cells, so less than $5k there. I really dont think the transmission is going to add $6k to the price. I think the batteries are not the big cost they once were, and that is why Brammo is going with 9.3 on both models.
Besides, The Peter Ha thinks the 20k price speculation is BS... he seems like the guy who would have some inside 411.
I wouldn't be surprised if the cells came from China.
Zero's cells come from South Korea, EIG.
My general feeling is that the Zero S pricing has a little bit of profit built-in ($2-3k/unit) .. as does the Enertia Plus. I feel like the two are competitively priced against each other. The E+ pricing should be a big hint to the Empulse pricing.
Let's use a Zero-like bike as the "base" for a price comparison. Let's start with the assumption Brammo has a better supply chain management and might be willing to take a smaller profit cut to sell the bikes, so let's use a $13k 7.9 kWh bike as the base bike price point. Also note the distinction between cost and price.. cost is the price Brammo pays its suppliers to source components in bulk. Price is the incremental change in the figure the consumer pays to Brammo.
Hand-waving ahead.
1. Batteries. $500/kWh may be the base cell cost, but then you have to consider packaging, cooling, monitor hardware, assembly labor, returns / loss and profit. Zero sells the ZF6 5.3 kWh and ZF9 7.9 kWh at a $2500 price differential, $960/kWh. Brammo sells the (presumably) $8k 3.1 kWh 2012 Enertia and the $11k 6.2 kWh Enertia+, $970/kWh. The only real difference between the ZF6/ZF9 bikes and the 2012 Enertia/Enertia+ bikes are the batteries.
Upgrading the battery from 7.9 kWh to 9.3 kWh adds $1350 to the price.
2. Upgraded charger. Zero sells the standalone 1 kW Delta-Q QuiQ for $500 for the '12 S. A 3 kW liquid-cooled custom-designed charger + J1772 inlet is probably going to be priced in the neighborhood of $1200 (hand wave). Note that the included 110v accessory cable is also rather more expensive, as it includes the J1772 "gun" plug.
Figure the upgraded charger adds $700 to the price.
3. Upgraded liquid-cooled motor. Zero uses a modified 30 kW Motenergy PM0913 BLDC air-cooled motor, typical web price $800.
Figure upgrading the motor and cooling system add $700 to the price.
Hand wave.
4. Upgraded motor controller. Zero and Brammo both use Sevcon Gen 4 controllers
(PDF), Zero is air-cooled. Brammo may be liquid-cooled.
Zero claims 220A for XU, 420A for S/DS. At 65V, this means 14kW XU and 27kW S/DS, which match well to the Zero bike's 2 minute claims. The closest Sevcon controllers are G4827 XU and G4845 S/DS.
Thunderstruck lists these at $575 and $875 respectively.
Brammo claims 270A sustained. G8055 seems to be way overkill for Brammo's application. G8035 maybe can do 270A sustained with liquid-cooling.. or maybe Brammo is talking about 2 minute numbers like Zero. Thunderstruck doesn't list the G8035, but another vendor
lists the G4845 at $925, the G8035 at $995, and the G8055 at $1195.
G8035 seems to be about as expensive as G4845 (both are Gen 4 Size 4 controllers). Call it +$50 to make even numbers : )
5. IET. I assume there's a fair bit of R&D investment built up here, even though the material cost is inexpensive. SMRE's pricing to Brammo will probably be high, initially.
Assume $1000 IET cost. Assume Zero's belt system adds about $100 in cost vs a chain system. Transmission net = $900.
Hand wave.
6. Upgraded displays, instrumentation, and logging capability. Zero uses a rebadged $200 KOSO instrument cluster for their bikes. I'll need to add a cycleanalyst high-current ($150) and an analogger addon ($100) to get similar functionality to the Enertia/Empulse displays.
Figure the upgraded displays add $100 to the price.
7. Various bits, bobs, etc. Assume passenger pillions and 12V DC are stock, those are about $500 in options for the Zero.
Figure $750 for better quality components in general and more standard equipment.
8. Frame, fairing, forks, shocks, brakes, wheels, tires are different. I assume the base Empulse uses components similar in quality and cost to the Zero.
Likely a bad assumption. Call this a wash.
Total bill:
$13000 base bike price
+ $1350 battery
+ $700 charger
+ $700 motor and cooling system
+ $50 controller
+ $900 IET chain drive
+ $100 displays
+ $750 better components, standard equipment
= $17550 base Empulse price, assuming Brammo wants to take a hit on profits.
