Author Topic: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report  (Read 831 times)

Richard230

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PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« on: January 07, 2013, 10:48:14 AM »
Here is a link to the table of contents of a new extensive and comprehensive 68-page PikeResearch Report regarding the current status and future of the electric motorcycle and scooter industry.  Lots of big names mentioned in the summary.  From the look of the contents, the 68-page report appears to cover just about everything you could think of regarding the electric motorcycle industry. 

http://www.pikeresearch.com/research/electric-motorcycles-and-scooters
current bikes: 2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2011 Royal Enfield Bullet 500 Classic, 2009 BMW F650GS, 2007 BMW R1200R, 2005 Triumph T-100 Bonneville, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

ttxgpfan

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2013, 01:43:37 PM »
Wow, $3900 just to read 68 pages. jeesh.

Richard230

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2013, 05:57:02 PM »
Wow, $3900 just to read 68 pages. jeesh.

I knew you had to pony up some bucks to read the report, but I had no idea how much.  :o  They must be aiming that information at major manufacturers and public policy types.  I think I will wait for someone to post the "executive summary".  Maybe some news organization will do it. I hope the information contained in the report is worth it.   ???
current bikes: 2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2011 Royal Enfield Bullet 500 Classic, 2009 BMW F650GS, 2007 BMW R1200R, 2005 Triumph T-100 Bonneville, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

protomech

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2013, 07:19:59 PM »
One thing to keep in mind is that when we talk about millions of motorcycle + scooter sales in China / Asia, really we're talking about millions of 15-20 mph scooter sales + a few thousand sales of things that people in the US would recognize as motorcycles or scooters (45+ mph).. or so I've read.

X-Treme Scooters is a good example. They sell everything from an electrified razer-type push scooter to a 60 mph scooter that rivals the Enertia in specifications, if not in quality. ThunderSky prismatic batteries have a truly wretched reputation .. I recall a few years back a lot of EV conversions were eying them for their favorable Wh/$ ratio. All Li is not equal.

Presumably they sell more of these @ ~$100:


than these @ ~$6000:
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ttxgpfan

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2013, 07:49:05 PM »
I just read the executive summary.  I'll look into putting it up on the blog.  All you have to do is register to see it.  Basically they are predicting big numbers of lead-acid powered scooters.  They think elmoto sales in Europe to go up to 180,000, but NA sales to be a limp wristed 16,900.  All by 2018.  Along with all that they have very low prediction numbers for li-ion powered scooters or motorcycles.  If I am reading their chart right, basically the US would sell all the li-ion powered motorcycles in the world, and Europe would take the lead acid.  They define a motorcycle as being able to go over 30mph and have bigger than a 3kW motor, in simplest terms.  So no need to worry about Asia, they're going to bury themselves in lead-acid batteries.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2013, 07:51:08 PM by ttxgpfan »

Richard230

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2013, 11:38:43 AM »
I don't see the Europeans going for lead acid batteries.  Not only are they hard to recycle and not very "green", but the AGM batteries made in Europe suck (in my opinion).  I had two German-made Exide batteries on both of my BMW motorcycles fail without warning and leave me stranded in the middle of nowhere, requiring a tow to the nearest BMW shop (100 miles away in one instance). One battery was only 6 months old and the other was two years old. Nether one gave any indication that it was going to expire.

So right now I don't think much of European-made AGM batteries.  I think the Chinese-made lead-acid batteries are better.  No doubt because they don't worry much about lead and acid polluting the environment and are willing to use lots of both when making batteries, unlike the Europeans who are very concerned about that sort of thing.  Therefore I think Li batteries will be welcomed in Europe, even though they are more expensive to produce.  I also note that is what BMW will be using in their e-scooter, when it finally come on sale.

See, who needs to pay for a PikeResearch report when you have me for free.   ;D
current bikes: 2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2011 Royal Enfield Bullet 500 Classic, 2009 BMW F650GS, 2007 BMW R1200R, 2005 Triumph T-100 Bonneville, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

protomech

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2013, 01:27:23 PM »
Lead acid (LA) has a very attractive buy-in price, I think around $150/kWh. You see a lot of shoestring budget EV conversions using lead acid .. and many EVs in china too.

While LA is very recyclable, it has a number of very serious problems for EVs:

1. You do not want to discharge down to 0% SOC, even with deep cycle LA. It's best not to do this with lithium batteries either, but they'll typically bounce back just fine. 0% SOC on a LA battery is probably going to kill the battery.

So if you want ideally to keep above 50% SOC in daily usage, and absolutely never go below 20% SOC, then you need to buy 25% more battery than you would with lithium. Hurts weight, hurts price.

2. Cycle count is low - few hundred cycles, where each "cycle" is down to 50% SOC. Because of this, buy-in cost is low but operational cost is high due to the need to replace the battery every year or two.

3. Low capacity per volume and weight. Exacerbated by point #1 above.

4. Slow recharge times. Not a problem if you overnight charge, as most of us do currently. J1772 3-7kW would only be acceptable with a very large pack.

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oml

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2013, 02:47:49 PM »
ok, europe is bigger than germany, but at least here not one gives a shit about lead-acid.

even home-sized battery-storage systems (which are getting more popular every day as they allow getting (almost) independent combinded with PV and maybe a combined heat power thing) are build only with L-ION, besides the fact that they often are stored in the cellar where size and weight dont matter.

The reason for this is the seemingly much higher sophistication of L-ION: not that endangered by cold, not that fast capacity regression, no lead (toxic), no (not exactly healthy eather) acid clouds eather (german law actually requires active ventilation systems for rooms with LA-battery-systems). If you additionally have to buy about 3 sets of LA for every set of L-ION, its not worth it anymore.

In vehicles the same reasons apply. But media and pricing politics (3 kwh more battery? that makes +5000 moneys!) made the dump public think that L-ION has, is and will always be incredible expensive, so none are bought at all.

kingcharles

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2013, 04:14:13 PM »
At Intermot 2012 almost every elmoto had Li batteries. Only a few Chinese made moped scooters had LA. All the EU made bikes only have Li as option.
Pike Research are idiots if they think Europe will buy LA over Li.
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ttxgpfan

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2013, 01:15:59 AM »
I believe that they think they will use lead acid because of the price.  Maybe they are thinking the poorer countries.  I am sure they back up their findings with facts, but I don't have $4k to find out.

protomech

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Re: PikeResearch electric motorcycle/scooter industry report
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2013, 10:42:13 PM »
See here for a good example of lead acid traction battery longevity:
http://slo.craigslist.org/cto/3447925653.html

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