Motley Fool misses the mark

[Brammofan]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/06/harley-davidson-really-misjudged-electric-motorcyl.aspx

They were right about HD, but saying that they're vulnerable to Lightning's new $13K bike is ridiculous.

[Drivingthefuture]

I don't know, they may be on to something... case in point, ME

I rode the Livewire a couple years back when they did their national test ride tour. I applied, got selected, and happily went down to Nashville, TN to take it for a spin. Before we headed out they told us there are two modes, a high performance mode and a long range mode, since I'd been off my bike a lot that year I decided to opt down to the "slower" long range mode. I was STILL blown away by the performance, the sound, and the feel of the bike. At the end they had us take a survey by the trailer and I distinctly remember one of the questions being "How much should we charge for this bike?" And my response was no more than 15-20k. I remember thinking I would REALLY love to own this bike.

Fast forward to just a few days ago (mind you after Harley's pricing announcement for the livewire and the barely competitive with Zero specs, I'd decided the bike probably wasn't for me). My brammo enertia is broken down in my garage again due to the D4 error, and as I contemplated ordering a new DMC motor controller off ebay for $675 and trying to get it to work, I stumbled across an article on Electrek.co about the Lightning strike motorcycle and all the other bikes that will be unveiled/released in 2019. I was stunned by the specs... 150mph... 150 miles of range... but most of all, the PRICE... 13k??? I did some quick math, if I sold my Enertia for parts and my old Honda as well, I could cobble together 3k for a down payment and... if I financed the rest, I would be looking at only $180 / month.

Next thing I knew I found myself at Lightning motorcycle's website... putting down $500 of my hard earned money so that if this bike is as good as it sounds, I don't miss out.

I may be a corner case, but just thought I was an interesting example... of someone who really wanted the Livewire especially after riding it, and now has a Lightning reservation and is disinterested in the Livewire.

[Brammofan]

My point was more about how I think it will be impossible for Lightning to manufacture a bike for that price.

[Shinysideup]

What jumped out at me from this article:

"According to data from Polk, analysts at BMO Capital Markets say industry leader Zero Motorcycle only sold 750 electric motorcycles in the U.S. in 2018."

If true, I find that really very sad. No wonder Brammo couldn't make it.

[Richard230]

What jumped out at me from this article:

"According to data from Polk, analysts at BMO Capital Markets say industry leader Zero Motorcycle only sold 750 electric motorcycles in the U.S. in 2018."

If true, I find that really very sad. No wonder Brammo couldn't make it.

I have been wondering about that Zero sales number, also.  In particular, I would like to know where that information was derived. I would also like to point out that those 750 unit numbers are said to be only U.S. sales and not Zero's total sales throughout the rest of the World.

In the past Zero's total sales numbers have been tossed around in the 1500 to 2000 unit range.  Plus, sales in Europe seem to have been pretty decent last year, according to some EU country public records, which I bet would be at least twice the U.S. sales numbers.  I also imagine that U.S. sales were hurt by both the end of the IRS electric motorcycle sales 10% rebate program and the fact that the 2018 Zero models really haven't changed much since 2013.  A long time for a modern motorcycle design to remain static.

I suspect that someone dreams up stuff, posts it on the internet and then everyone else snatches that information and re-posts it all over the place, and soon it becomes fact.   

Regarding Lightning's new internet motorcycle, I just can't believe that they could sell the "Strike" for anything like $13K and make a profit, unless it had half the performance, range and features as advertised. I am really going to be interested to hear about Drivingthefuture's experience with Lightning, when his bike arrives and what sort of range and performance it will have.

One comment I will make though, is that to sell their motorcycles, Lightning will need a vehicle retail license from the California DMV and also get US DOT approval for the vehicle.  In particular if they don't have a retail license, they will have to contract with independent motorcycle dealerships to sell the bike. 

Anyone recall the Best Buy fiasco, where they had the Brammo Enertia in their stores, but couldn't sell them?  Electric Motorsport ran into the same issue, when I tried to purchase my 2010 GPR-S and they couldn't sell it to me because their DMV retail license had expired. Eventually, they had to ship the bike to The Electric Green Store, in Redwood City (ironically just across the street from Best Buy) so that they could sell the GPR-S to me and then get it registered at the local DMV office to make it a legal on the road vehicle.

[Drivingthefuture]

Wow that's funny I didn't know about the Best Buy fiasco! And ok to OP makes sense about doubting Lightning can sell a bike at that price. I do find it hard to believe that the DC fast charging capability will be included at the base price... But if the range and speed are, I'd still be happy. My biggest fear is that they will be like Tesla and take preorders but not actually be able to deliver the bike till winter time or late next year. Hopefully they are already working on production.

[HadesOmega]

I'll just wait for the dust to settle, it going to be quite a year 2019 will be for electric motorcycles.  This is what we need competition.  Competition brings innovation.  Lightning has been making electric bikes for a while now maybe they've finally got the secret sauce to make that $13k price tag happen.  We'll see I'm happy with my Empulse so I'm not scrambling out to get the newest gadget. 

Zero and Lightning have been so hush hush about their new bikes.  It could just be blowing smoke up everyones @ss. 

Just wait till the foreign electric bikes start making it hear too.  Like that Kymco Nex.

[BrammoQC]

I fully expect the $13k version from Lightning to be very limited in regards to range, performance, and quality of parts...it may just be enough for them to advertise "starting at $13k" but I'm with the rest of you in feeling like the true bike spec'd to go 150 miles will be much, much more $$$$. Considering they haven't actually produced more than a handful of anything, I'm skeptical...and to assemble bikes in or around Silicon Valley at that price smells funny.

DH

[Richard230]

Kind of makes you wonder if they are just trying to take the wind out of their competitors' sales of their new models this year.   

[Drivingthefuture]

Luckily we will have a lot less guessing to do in 17 days when Zero unveils their new bike, and then next month when Lightning does theirs.

[HadesOmega]

it's like an arms race hehe

[Richard230]

it's like an arms race hehe

With every combatant having very little ammunition to shoot and few customers to shoot it at. 

[Drivingthefuture]

Lightning motorcycles just replied to me on Instagram, they will be announcing the launch date for the Strike in the next 3 weeks, also, they said production of the standard models will commence right after the carbon edition... Hmmm

[Richard230]

Any idea how they will be sold to their customers? Will Lightning have a retail distribution network, or will they have them shipped to your door like CSC Motorcycles does when you buy one of their Chinese-made 250cc bikes?

[HadesOmega]

I'm assuming they will sell it like Tesla or CSC.  They would need to establish a dealer network if not.  Hope they have a demo day =P