Jonesing for Enertia+ in Dull-Aware

[webmost]

Ahoy

I long for an Enertia Plus. Been looking at the E for years, but 40 miles a day won't cut it even for my petite commute. Now that the Plus is almost here, it may become practical.

Here's the probs:

1) I am a lifetime year-round rider.  I live in Dull-Aware. In Winter, it rarely gets below five degrees; but it does stay in the teens or below for weeks at a time. When it gets into single digits, my lead acid or AGM batteries have a hard time turning bike engines over. How much of that is thick oil and how much is cold battery? I dunno. So here's my question: Who here has personal experience with their Brammo batteries in sub-zero temps? Note that I am not asking for theory; I am asking specifically for experience, please. (Love my heated grips. I assume I would have to do without those.)

2) I have an 8 mile commute each way. Frequently, I may have to take a bank deposit or fetch lunch, which adds another 5 miles. Every other afternoon, I run to the Y to play handball -- that's another 12 miles each way. So daily I have a minimum of 16 miles, every other day 40 miles, and if there are errands, 50 or 60. No, in the real world you cannot safely go slow without inviting the brain dead cage drivers to run your silly butt over, so about half this distance must be run at 60 or 65, period. I weigh 210. My luggage is typically compact. The Dull-Mar-Va peninsula is basically a sand bar, so no hills to climb. Will an advertised 80 mile range reliably get me 50 or 60 miles under those conditions?

3) I have searched but I have been unable to find how many motorcycles has Brammo sold? I want to know whether there are enough of a sample on the road yet to know whether they are reliable etc.

4) I am an every day rider. I have a BMW R1200CLC for touring, a Kawi KLR650 for camping, and a BMW K75 for commuting and errands. The E+ would take the job of the K75. Since April, when I got her on the road, I have put 9k on the K75. So say an average of 45 miles a day. If I charge this thing up daily then I will reach the battery life of 1,000 cycles in less than 3 years. I read at brammo.com that the cost for a replacement battery array for an Enertia runs $3,600. Let's assume that the E+ pack will run twice that three years from now, considering it delivers twice the range. I just cannot see how having to pop seven grand for batteries on a used bike every three or four years makes the least goldang sense at all. My KLR gets 57mpg, my R12CLC gets 50, my K75 gets 45. Gas here is $3.30. So each mile costs me six, six and a half, or seven cents respectively. Battery costs alone equal that before you buy the Enertia or the electricity. Worse yet: The K75 cost me $1,500 to buy... the KLR $2,900. At nine grand for an E+, I could buy both of those rides twice. How do you guys make any economic sense whatever out of this thing? No, I am not impressed by gorebull warbling, so don't even bring that ridiculous farce to the table. Just on cost per mile, cost per ride, how do you justify the Brammo idea? I need something to convince the RedHead.

TIA

[protomech]

Gavin, meet your long lost brother!

[Shinysideup]

Just on cost per mile, cost per ride, how do you justify the Brammo idea?

My justification: Because I want one.

Now, I COULD dig deeper into my bag of rationalizations, many of which are probably even valid.

For example, I could declare that the cost per mile is not at all an adequate measure of true total cost.

If I were to broaden my basis of cost, then I could include the cost of destroying Canada for her tar sands, and polluting the Gulf of Mexico, and having my family and friends breathing carcinogens to the point that we're headed to 1 in 3 lifetime cancer incidence.

Then I could add in the cost of perpetual resource wars, both in dollars ($1.171 Trillion)  and in blood (As of March 2011, 4,441 Americans have died in Iraq as have as many as 150,000 civilians, and another 4.5 million civilians have been displaced. In Afghanistan, 1,513 Americans have died and, although accurate counts are hard to come by, as many as 8,000 Afghan civilians have been killed and another 3.7 million refugees are internally displaced or living in neighboring countries.) Not to count the cost of missing limbs and closed head injuries.

Even if you're not enamored of Gore, you've got to guess that burning 3.5 billion gallons of oil each and every day is bound to heat up something!

So in addition to true broad costs, there's the feeling of utter smugness knowing I just brought home 6 bags of groceries on my electric bicycle, a distance of 12 miles, and used only solar electricity to accomplish the feat, and didn't even sweat! I can get downright insufferable in my righteousness, and THAT's got to be worth something!

And welcome, fellow life-long year-round everyday rider.

- Bill

[webmost]

Yabbut... Electricity does not come for free either, Shiny. Once you have dammed all the rivers, then you have to either burn coal, oil, gas, or pile up nuclear waste that has a 10,000 year half life. All while the majority of power gets dissipated in the grid as heat before it even gets to the plug. The tail pipe is only half the story. So you can go round and round with all of that. There is no free lunch, though there are seven billion of us elbowing at the free lunch counter. Proponents focus on the strongest link while opponents focus on the weakest link of any chain. Both can reap "utter smugness", to use your phrase, only by picking and choosing their links.

One other question I had in mind but forgot to ask: To be safe on a motorcycle you need to get out of the way. Sometimes, that means being light enough to literally jerk the machine by the handlebars into the next lane. Other times, it means twisting the throttle and getting the heck out of there now. Bikes in general are grossly over-powered, and that's a good thing when you need to escape that texting brain dead cager and go find the open spot. So how much zip do you have with one of these lectric bikes? When you are doing 40 and you twist the grip, how quickly do you jump to 60? The answer to this question requires experience of different motorcycles. My R1200CLC is powerful enough to get up and get, but too heavy to jerk. My KLR is light enough to jerk, but too anemic to get up and get. My K75 is in between. What's the Enertia compare to?

[Gavin]

year round rider also...

I can't answer all the questions...I can say that I too have solar panels...so no emissions and no gas stations is a huge plus for me...

on top of that, 1000 charges is to 80% capacity...so even if you ride to near empty and charge everyday, at 3 years you will still have 80% of your day 1 range. (i doubt anybody will charge everyday..vacations, sick days, days on your other rides--which I would suggestion you do on those days you are going 60 to 70 miles, much of it at 65 mph. The Plus has a range of 80 miles in the city, 60 in Suburban riding patterns and 40 at highway speeds...so plan accordingly. 70 miles at a mix with some highway? well the Plus isn't going to cut it for that, so you will have to use one of your other bikes. I too will be keeping a long distance ride to go along with my Plus...my Plus WILL be my daily rider, but there are times I want to go 100 miles on a nice mountain trip and the Plus won't do that...at least not for a few years yet )

now even if at three years from date of purchasing your Plus (2012?) and your range has dropped to where you want new batteries; well batteries are getting both better and CHEAPER...if you still want 80 miles of range in 2015, that will likely set you back half of what it costs today...if you want 200 miles in 2012, well that will likely be right around what Brammo is stating as the replacement cost now...

Gavin

[protomech]

1. The Enertia uses Valence LiFePO4 batteries. Details on the Enertia Plus batteries haven't been announced yet, so it's hard to say anything about the battery performance. Hopefully we will get more information at EICMA this month.

Phantom has ridden his Enertia in temperatures at least down to the 20s. BrammoBrian (Brammo product development director) claims the lower operating temperature of the Enertia batteries is -10°C / 14°F.

Lead acid definitely takes a hit to performance in the cold. Temperature impact is heavily dependent upon the battery chemistry; I believe the Valence Ucharge batteries in the Enertia are rated for 65% capacity at -10°C. Honda uses Toshiba SCiB batteries in their Honda EV-neo scooter that are rated at 95% capacity at -10°C, 85% capacity at -30°C.

The Enertia Plus will have a 12V accessory plug on the handlebar.


2. The Enertia Plus' top speed has yet to be announced, but the Enertia tops out right around 60 mph.

Brammo claims 40 miles highway OR 80 miles city (~25 mph) for the Enertia Plus. The Enertia Plus can probably handle work + Y, but not work + Y + errands without intermediate charging. If you CAN charge at a 120V plug for a few hours after lunch/errands, then I think you would be okay.

Zero has a pretty good website covering range in real-world conditions on their 2010 Zero S (3.9 kwh). Not 100% comparable, but add about 50% to their range and you'll be in the ballpark.

Keep in mind that range will be reduced somewhat in the cold. How much? We don't know yet.


3. I believe Brammo has sold somewhere around 300-500 Enertias. I'd love to see a sales tally as well.


4. Generally speaking, lithium batteries linearly degrade based on time, cycle count, and discharge/charge conditions. Brammo claims 1000 cycles to 80% capacity; the 80% figure is just convention, in actual usage you may make it out to 2000 cycles (60% capacity = 48 city miles OR 24 highway miles) or beyond. Basically you can keep using the bike as long as the range is acceptable; commuting on non-Y days or similar.

I would guesstimate battery replacement costs for the Enertia Plus to run around $4-5k today, certainly not $7k for a $9k bike. In 3-5 years the battery replacement costs should be less, or a higher capacity battery may be available. Brammo has indicated they would like

I'll admit that I don't find the above explanation terribly satisfying; I'd love to see Brammo offer a pro-rated battery replacement plan similar to the Tesla's plan for the Roadster.

Here are a few other things to consider:
* Maintenance for the electric bikes should be near-zero other than brakes, chain and batteries.
* We don't know what gas prices will look like in 3-5 years. At 50-60 mpg your bikes do pretty well here anyhow.
* 1000 charge cycles is 1000 full cycles or 2000 50% charge cycles. Generally mileage is a better indication of wear than variable charge count. 1000 full cycles should get you around 40k miles highway or 80k miles city on the Enertia Plus.


Bonus: Speaking generally, the Enertia is somewhere between a 125c and a 250cc bike. The Enertia Plus should be a bit faster; the 3.1 kwh Valence pack is rated at peak 3C discharge (9.3 kw), but the Enertia motor is rated at 13kw peak.

[Gavin]

Yeah, what Proto said

Basically, with mixed driving, you should be able to go a minimum of 60k before batteries hit 80% original capacity.

Since I put about 10k a year on my commuter (another 3-4k on my bicycle), I figure I might get a new battery pack around 5-7 years...so around 2018...I figure I can get a 200 mile pack for my Plus for around 2-3k by then...

but who knows...

By 2018 I might be buying the Enertia Plus 5...seats 5, goes 500 miles...sells like crazy in India where scooters are the family car....



Gavin

Yabbut... Electricity does not come for free either, Shiny.

--ah, you forgot solar...yes not free, but the panels are getting cheaper and cheaper...and many are made in the USA, so Jobs Jobs Jobs if we get panels on more and more homes...I live in New Mexico with 310 sunny days and a south facing roof...I actually get paid by the Electric company because I make extra energy...so no electric bill (saves 100 a month) AND PNM pays me about 35 bucks a month...so I save about 1500 a year...the panels pay for themselves in 7 years and will last for 30 to 40 years...it is a better return than putting my money in a bank or stocks...or stuffed in my mattress
Now not every house can profit right now with solar...but millions can...and as the panels get cheaper and cheaper, well it will be silly not to put them on just about any roof top.)

[protomech]

Yabbut... Electricity does not come for free either, Shiny. Once you have dammed all the rivers, then you have to either burn coal, oil, gas, or pile up nuclear waste that has a 10,000 year half life. All while the majority of power gets dissipated in the grid as heat before it even gets to the plug. The tail pipe is only half the story. So you can go round and round with all of that. There is no free lunch, though there are seven billion of us elbowing at the free lunch counter. Proponents focus on the strongest link while opponents focus on the weakest link of any chain. Both can reap "utter smugness", to use your phrase, only by picking and choosing their links.

Distribution through the grid is around 93% efficient - you only lose around 7% of the power as heat.

TANSTAAFL is absolutely true, but some lunches cost less than others.

Coal - dirty and dangerous to mine, but the US has the world's largest supply. Good for energy security. At worst, it centralizes the pollution. At best, EV bikes are much cleaner than similar gas bikes. We can scrub the stacks for everything but CO2.

Nuclear - 10k year half life yes. Waste can be greatly reduced with recycling reactors like in France. Big issues with weaponization and demonization. Meltdown risk is very low probability very high damage. Probably the best option but political suicide. New plant construction is stupendously expensive.

Hydro - we're basically tapped out on hydro in the US. Fantastic where it's available.

Wind and solar - rapidly growing, but still not major producers. Both are highly variable producers depending on wind / sunlight conditions. Grids with large amounts of solar and wind are HARD to control. NOT free, but some of the better sustainable options.

Natural gas - pretty clean except for CO2. Large supply in the US. Good for energy security.

Gasoline - not really used for grid production, mostly used for transportation. Pretty clean in modern cars except for CO2, dirty in bikes but getting cleaner. Terrible for energy security, little domestic production. Fantastic energy density. Prices extremely subject to market speculation. We've plucked much of the low-hanging fruit for production, it only gets harder and more expensive (dollars, lives, risk of ecological damage) going forward.

[Gavin]

I want Proto to write all my forum messages...I would suddenly seem so much smarter...

Great replies Proto...

Gavin


ps...I think of myself as very green...and would LOVE tons of solar and wind and hydro and tide (solar and tide could conceivably power the whole planet for millions and millions of years...) but I can see Nuc Power being a good addition if done right. We could have a half dozen or so plants here in the 4 corners area (little population, no real natural disasters) that power 6 to 8 states...remote, safe locations with state of the art facilities and better waste management...works well in France.
Japan...well lots of Earthquakes and those plants were on the Coast...Russia, well that is Russia ...3 mile Island...mostly overblown and also too close to population...

But still we do have cleaner options as the tech gets smarter, better and cheaper....

I personally want to see a solar ring around the planet...a mile wide right around the equator and in a stable orbit...energy sent down either by tether lines or by wireless transmission....so about 25,000 miles long by 1 mile wide...would be enough energy right there to power most of the worlds electrical needs....

[webmost]

Protomech actually reads and comprehends before he answers. These are rare virtues, this day and age. Thanks for your answers.

Greenies: In the end, pennies per mile may be the most accurate gauge of how much resources you are using. The less you're buying the less you're using.

Yes, it would be a more accurate measure if we could back off all the tax breaks and industry subsidies. In this age of rampant fascism, what's the chances of that? But it still may be the closest we can come to a single comprehensible repeatable measure.

When I rescue a K75, for example, that's been parked twelve years, put some new tires on her, a new fuel pump in her, clean her injectors, and such, and bring it back to life ... think of all the ores and energy that don't have to get burnt making a new E+. Nor does the used beemer solution destroy gorilla habitat. It doesn't even require my unborn great-grandchildren to pay life-long interest to corrupt banksters for bonds sold today to float loans to pay me a subsidy to buy electric before it has become economical. It's flat wrong to steal from babies.

The less you're buying the less you're using. Barefoot on the one end and a Hummer on the other, with a wide pennies per mile scale spread between.

I gotta find a place somewheres closer to the Right Coast where I can throw a leg over one of these puppies. I want to know if it's got enough punch in it to get out of traffic's way. Love the looks.

[Brammofan]

Damn, protomech.... just ... damn. 

Re: Webmost's comment:

if we could back off all the tax breaks and industry subsidies

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.  Can we agree that the subsidies for the oil and gas companies are not going to end any time soon?  If we can agree to that, then I am all for the continuation of existing subsidies and growth of more of them for the EV industry.  This country wouldn't have gotten very far without the government's stimulation of the railroads, etc. 

Re-using vehicles is a fine idea - and yes, definitely makes the least impression on your carbon footprint versus buying a newly-manufactured one.  But the emissions... the emissions are what's going to kill us.  If you want to find and rescue a K75 and put a new (or rescued) electric motor in it and find some salvaged lithium ion batteries somewhere and DIY, then I salute you for your skills, your resourcefulness, and your efficiency.  I can't do that because I am inept.  I'll buy one ready-made that works.  I take comfort in knowing that Brammo uses a lot of parts that are made from recycled materials.  My fenders, side panels, etc. are made from recycled battery boxes.  The aluminum frame is from (not sure of the percentage) x % post-consumer aluminum. 

Gotta get going - unfortunately I'm driving my 19mpg Honda Pilot today so I can't even feel smug when I drive home.  Keep talking, guys.  This is a great thread.

[Richard230]

I agree that resurrecting old vehicles instead of junking them makes sense and I applaud anyone who does this. However, I owned a 1991 K100RS on which I rode for 63K miles and then sold it to a Yamaha service manager who had a 60 mile commute into work. I had its tailpipe emissions tested and the thing was a real stinkbomb. As I recall, the HC numbers were just over 400 parts per million on the testing machine. The poor emission testing machine just about had a coronary. I had my 1999 Saturn tested a couple of months ago and it had 2 parts per million on the machine. So motorcycle pollution is a concern.

[Shinysideup]

The less you're buying the less you're using. Barefoot on the one end and a Hummer on the other, with a wide pennies per mile scale spread between.

Actually, after reading an article in Scientific American years ago, I'd replace the barefoot pedestrian with a human on a bicycle on the other end of that Hummer scale.

Here's some graphs I found interesting, since I don't have an Empulse to ride! (If you want to look at one only, check out the first one)

http://john-edwin-tobey.org/cgi-bin/ran/2011-01-27T06:13:33/ranprieur.com/images/vehicle-energy.png

http://www.pnas.org/content/95/10/5448/F7.large.jpg

http://www.pnas.org/content/95/10/5448/F8.large.jpg

http://www.coyoteblog.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/08/04/transenergy.png

http://www.earthdaycoalition.org/cleantransport/files/BTU's%20per%20transport%20mode%20CORRECT.jpg



- Bill

[protomech]

Yeah, biking is about 4x as efficient as walking.

I'm surprised (at the first picture) to see the pedal bike beating an electric bicycle (not motorcycle). A typical western diet uses a ton of energy - without reading the source, I'm a little suspicious.

[protomech]

The final chart is wrong, it's 252 little calories or 0.252 kcalories (food calories) per BTU.

So per that chart, a 20 mpg car is 5500 BTU/vehicle mile, a walking person is 320 BTU/vehicle mile, biking at 10 mph is 100 BTU/vehicle mile.

Biking's efficient, but it's not 50,000 times as efficient as a car : P