Sticker Shock?

[flar]

@proto - To make the analysis complete you would have to estimate what Brammo might sell the ZF9 for if they produced it.  Is that baked into the $13k base price you came up with (via some hand waving)?

I notice that the E+ with a 6.2kWh nominal battery is $500 less than a ZF6 with a 5.3kWh nominal battery, so there seems to be some better "kWh/$" value in the Brammo product line.

[EmpulseRider]

Yes, impressive and detailed post... Props to Proto. Lots of great points there.

Flar makes a good point too though, the Enertia Plus is a bit more bike for the money than the ZF6. Not only does the battery have almost a full kWh capacity advantage but it has superior components (Marzocchi / Brembo / Works). There is also a huge void between $11k and $18k... I dont think Brammo expects $6-7k more to upgrade from an Enertia Plus to a base Empulse... that leaves a rather sizable void between the 2 where they would lose many sales to Zero ZF9s. My guess would be $15k for the base Empulse, $17k for the R.

[protomech]

Yes, that's what the $13k Zero-like bike is.

I assume E+ uses a cheaper motor and controller, and most of the small components are reused from E Classic .. sort of a sunk cost. Chain instead of belt. Costs may be a bit higher, but the R&D is largely done.. Brammo can make a net profit with a smaller margin between costs and price. Assembly is cheaper in Hungary, though shipping may eat into that.

[karlInSanDiego]

Clearly I don't have as much passion, emotion, and time invested in the Empulse, but I'm thinking of BMW, Honda and their eventual move into the segment, which now looks like it's near.  Polaris is clearly a major factor for Brammo, and while their snowmobiles have had to price competitively, the Victory MCs are niche priced.  It's difficult to not niche price an electric anything, but in 18 months will an $18k price look as foolish as it does now, or worse yet, will it be laughable?  

A $100k Tesla that could do 220 miles and was had the handling of an Elise and the acceleration of a Porsche was a good niche build because wealthy people who didn't need to save on gas but wanted to take a stand and get a lot of bang for their big buck could rationalize it.  The Empulse will not be a Tesla, largely because of the range, and My opinion is that it will sell very poorly if it costs moe than every other bike in the building.  $18k will KILL this bike before it even gets out to dealers.

[Richard230]

The latest word that I have read is that the BMW electric scooter will arrive on the market in about three years.  Meanwhile, the two 650cc IC engined scooters that the electric one is based upon have an announced price of over $16,000 (10K Pounds) and up in the UK.  So I would expect any BMW electric scooter to be priced around the $20K level when it is introduced.  BMW is not shy about pricing their new models quite high.   

I just don't see anything coming on the market from any major motorcycle manufacturer that will compete with the Empulse in the next few years.  I think they are all waiting to see how big the market is for electric motorcycles.  The big guys want lots of volume before they will jump in and that may take a while.

[karlInSanDiego]

I'm not a Honda fanboy, but I firmly believe that Honda won't wait for a market.  They'll move mountains to get the battery costs down, and then they'll make a market.  BMW didn't telegraph their IC scooters 3 years before they released them.  BMW also said 3 years ago they weren't at all interested in electric cars.  And now they're a year from release.  Unfortunately, Brammo gave up a year of front running, and while I appreciate their vision, electrics are no longer anywhere near 3 years from launch by the majors.

[skuzzle]

I bet Honda will go after the small electric scooter market before it does a large bore (capacity?) electric bike.  Plus, I really think that they need to plug a hole in their gas powered bike price range first.  Yamaha, Kawasaki, and Suzuki all have road bikes that fit into the $7-9K price range.  Honda jumps from $4.4k (CBR 250) to $11.5k (CBR 600) with nothing in-between.  I also have to wonder what kind of price they would put on a large electric bike after seeing what they did to the VFR 

[Deadly Silent Ninja]

Two more days and we will have our answers.

I think the whole Brammo team is probably taking a day to prepare how to answer questions about the race accidents now.

Anyway, these are the questions my very selfish self wants answered on Tuesday:


1 - Are they actually unveiling 2 models on Tuesday or just the Empulse R? Their website only lists the Empulse R in the pre-order section, now.

2 - If it's just the Empulse R, will there be another simpler, cheaper model to be released on a later date?

3 - Can I afford either model (if there are two)? If they don't have a price closer to their original 8, it will get tricky, but if the lowest price goes above the most expensive estimate for the prototypes...

4 - Knowing that I have absolute zero incentives in VA, will the Brammo financing plan be actually as good as Craig hinted it to be during the interview?

5 - We know the bike looks good, but will it have a cafe racer clip-on option (without adding to the price) and, maybe a slimmer option? It would be awesome if the Empulse (without the R) would come with less belly and with the clip-ons, even if it would mean less range, especially if it comes in a much lower price.

Well, these are the price-related questions I have for now.

[Car Loss]

I think they are all waiting to see how big the market is for electric motorcycles.  The big guys want lots of volume before they will jump in and that may take a while.

...except for BMW.  They don't really do mass production, more like a batch production/mass production hybrid.  So, as long as an electric isn't truly different from the rest of their lineup (namely, different work setups), they can do as short a production run as their supply/logistics can handle.  That's the bigger issue- can they sign reasonable deals with parts suppliers at these quantities.

[Car Loss]

I bet Honda will go after the small electric scooter market before it does a large bore (capacity?) electric bike.  Plus, I really think that they need to plug a hole in their gas powered bike price range first.  Yamaha, Kawasaki, and Suzuki all have road bikes that fit into the $7-9K price range.  Honda jumps from $4.4k (CBR 250) to $11.5k (CBR 600) with nothing in-between. 

YES.  It's important to think like Honda, and not like Harley.  Worldwide, scooter sales dwarf motorcycle sales.  (What is it, like an order of magnitude's difference?  Maybe two?)  A truly viable electric scooter will build its own market.  Of course, it's possible that the global scooter market is too price-sensitive to handle the upfront sticker.  That still leaves fleet scooters- in-town delivery, couriers/dispatch, police, etc. 

The next step up is the 250cc moto segment, which STILL dwarfs Harley globally, let alone BMW, KTM, Ducati, Victory, etc.  Even a fraction of that segment is a whole lotta production line, and there are still delivery/courier/police fleets here.  Honda is a force in this segment, too.

And, as I've said before, the real money (at least, going by the North American market) is in electric forklifts, "Cushmans," cherry-pickers, etc.

[CAT in HAWAII]

I bet Honda will go after the small electric scooter market before it does a large bore (capacity?) electric bike.  Plus, I really think that they need to plug a hole in their gas powered bike price range first.  Yamaha, Kawasaki, and Suzuki all have road bikes that fit into the $7-9K price range.  Honda jumps from $4.4k (CBR 250) to $11.5k (CBR 600) with nothing in-between. 

YES.  It's important to think like Honda, and not like Harley.  Worldwide, scooter sales dwarf motorcycle sales.  (What is it, like an order of magnitude's difference?  Maybe two?)  A truly viable electric scooter will build its own market.  Of course, it's possible that the global scooter market is too price-sensitive to handle the upfront sticker.  That still leaves fleet scooters- in-town delivery, couriers/dispatch, police, etc. 

The next step up is the 250cc moto segment, which STILL dwarfs Harley globally, let alone BMW, KTM, Ducati, Victory, etc.  Even a fraction of that segment is a whole lotta production line, and there are still delivery/courier/police fleets here.  Honda is a force in this segment, too.

And, as I've said before, the real money (at least, going by the North American market) is in electric forklifts, "Cushmans," cherry-pickers, etc.

  ok, my WAG for pricing, day before the event, is $14.999 for the basic Empulse, and $17,999 for the Ready-to-Rip the streets "R",,,,

As for thinking like Honda, it's good to dream to be that big,, but let's get two years production on the Empulse, and then -maybe- branch out to a big Cruiser or Tourer and expand from there,,,

Full line of custom bikes, bulls head on everything,,, lotta room to grow,,,,

[EmpulseRider]

Two more days and we will have our answers.

I think the whole Brammo team is probably taking a day to prepare how to answer questions about the race accidents now.

Anyway, these are the questions my very selfish self wants answered on Tuesday:


1 - Are they actually unveiling 2 models on Tuesday or just the Empulse R? Their website only lists the Empulse R in the pre-order section, now.

2 - If it's just the Empulse R, will there be another simpler, cheaper model to be released on a later date?

3 - Can I afford either model (if there are two)? If they don't have a price closer to their original 8, it will get tricky, but if the lowest price goes above the most expensive estimate for the prototypes...

4 - Knowing that I have absolute zero incentives in VA, will the Brammo financing plan be actually as good as Craig hinted it to be during the interview?

5 - We know the bike looks good, but will it have a cafe racer clip-on option (without adding to the price) and, maybe a slimmer option? It would be awesome if the Empulse (without the R) would come with less belly and with the clip-ons, even if it would mean less range, especially if it comes in a much lower price.

Well, these are the price-related questions I have for now.

So many questions now... why are they no longer accepting pre-orders for the base Empulse??? I imagine this could be because the R will be available initially so they want to sell as many of them as possible before releasing the base Empulse model... that would kinda suck for those of us who have waited this long for something we originally planned on paying <$14k for minus the 1500 federal tax rebate that was available.

Ugggh, I hope thats not the case because there is no way I will get the approval to buy a $16k+ bike and I would hate to have to wait for the base Empulse... I hope this is not Brammo's plan. Perhaps Brammo could eat some of the profit for those that have waited this long... hint hint.

[Richard230]

Let's hope there is going to be a base Empulse. 

[protomech]

Yeah. When I signed up for the Empulse preorder list, I picked the $10k Empulse 6.0 expecting to see a federal rebate on the order of $1k ($9k net).

$9k is hardly pocket change, but it's also *roughly* comparable to what a new intermediate gas bike costs. I justified placing the preorder at the time based upon the relatively small difference between the initial gas vs electric cost to upgrade from my entry-level gas bike.

Cost-sensitive Empulse preorders (6.0 and 8.0 models) have a few options:
1. Ante up and buy the best, largest capacity production electric motorcycle available this year. Jumping from $9k or $10.8k (after subsidy) to $18k (no subsidy) one year later is going to be a bitter pill to swallow.
2. Buy a Zero S. A bit less speed and a lot less sexy than the Empulse concept, but the cost is only slightly higher than the preorder prices. Freeway speeds are no problem, though pure freeway range is dire.
3. Buy an Enertia Plus. The most suburban range for your buck, a bit more speed than the Enertia Classic but still not a freeway commuter.
4. Buy a gas bike.
5. Wait for next year.

To be honest, I think most 6.0 and 8.0 preorders will turn into #4 and #5 .. and there's going to be a bit of ill-will generated if Brammo repeats the Enertia Plus non-response of "hope you don't notice the silent $7-9k price bump, really rather not discuss this right now".

[jonnyd76]

Yeah. When I signed up for the Empulse preorder list, I picked the $10k Empulse 6.0 expecting to see a federal rebate on the order of $1k ($9k net).

...

4. Buy a gas bike.
5. Wait for next year.

To be honest, I think most 6.0 and 8.0 preorders will turn into #4 and #5 .. and there's going to be a bit of ill-will generated if Brammo repeats the Enertia Plus non-response of "hope you don't notice the silent $7-9k price bump, really rather not discuss this right now".

Yeah, after hearing the prices tonight I think I may just spring on a used DRZ400SM.  Believe me, I love the Brammo, but I can't justify that much money on a loan for something that I was budgeting ~5k for. (after CO tax rebate)

Really wish they would have stuck with the original design for affordibility, but I understand to have the coolest toys you gotta have the most moulah.  Maybe sometime in the future =/