Author Topic: Sticker Shock?  (Read 6096 times)

FreepZ

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 776
    • View Profile
    • Empulse Experience
    • Email
Sticker Shock?
« on: May 03, 2012, 10:40:39 PM »
Asphalt and Rubber speculates that the price for the Empulse is going be about $20,000.

http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/rumors/brammo-empulse-r-price/

We'll find out in a few days...
Richard #935 #595 #44

EmpulseRider

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 893
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2012, 12:38:26 AM »
Well, I can guess at this point that I wont be in the market for the Empulse R. My hopes are pinned on the regular Empulse being within a price range I can afford... otherwise I am currently bikeless as my GSXR 750 sold the other day as part of my Empulse purchase plans. Did I jump the gun, well maybe, but I know this is the time of year to sell and I got what I wanted for it.

I really hope Brammo comes through this Tuesday... I need a motorcycle  :-\

skuzzle

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 236
    • View Profile
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2012, 12:47:18 AM »
I could certainly see how Brammo could offer two models with different price points.  What I can't see is the more expensive one not having a fairing.  For $20k I would want the RR without the racing bits.  I mean for $18k I could buy a Ducati 1199 Panigale.

EmpulseRider

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 893
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2012, 12:59:04 AM »
I could certainly see how Brammo could offer two models with different price points.  What I can't see is the more expensive one not having a fairing.  For $20k I would want the RR without the racing bits.  I mean for $18k I could buy a Ducati 1199 Panigale.

I have been lusting over the Panigale, that bike is seriously sexy... for me though, even a 20k Empulse would be less expensive with the 6k CO tax rebate. I know I have less room to complain but shit, $20k for a motorcycle... I could afford it, but how would I explain that to my wife? Yikes...

skuzzle

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 236
    • View Profile
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2012, 02:35:55 AM »
I could certainly see how Brammo could offer two models with different price points.  What I can't see is the more expensive one not having a fairing.  For $20k I would want the RR without the racing bits.  I mean for $18k I could buy a Ducati 1199 Panigale.

I have been lusting over the Panigale, that bike is seriously sexy... for me though, even a 20k Empulse would be less expensive with the 6k CO tax rebate. I know I have less room to complain but shit, $20k for a motorcycle... I could afford it, but how would I explain that to my wife? Yikes...

I think our Oregon tax incentives went away at the end of last year.  The possible jump from $14 to $20 is really a $7500 jump from what it would have been last year.

BTW, there was a bicycle survey that I read once about "How do you choose the best bicycle".  My favorite response was, "start with a cheap bicycle and move up until the wife gives you the look.  ;D

Brammofan

  • Administrator
  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 3255
  • Following the momentum of Enertia
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2012, 06:53:39 AM »
Empulsebuyer - isn't Colorado's incentive still in effect? 
The Brammoforum Wiki is still active: http://www.brammoforum.com/wiki

EmpulseRider

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 893
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2012, 08:14:56 AM »
Empulsebuyer - isn't Colorado's incentive still in effect?  

Yes, it is. So a 20k Empulse is really 14k for me... but Im still paying sales taxes and plates on a 20k vehicle, which really eat into that 6k tax break. :o If it was up to me the price would not be a roadblock.

BTW, who is this guy? https://twitter.com/#!/thepeterha/status/198202619527827456

Cool twitter background...

Update: Ok, so he is the editor for techcrunch... he must know something mr Beeler doesnt??

Update2: The Peter Ha... I like that, from now on I will refer to myself as The EmpulseBuyerâ„¢
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 08:49:26 AM by EmpulseBuyer »

Brammofan

  • Administrator
  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 3255
  • Following the momentum of Enertia
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2012, 08:27:50 AM »
If it was up to me the price would not be a roadblock.
I'd say, "cowboy up, empulsebuyer," but I know exactly what you're saying.  ::)  It's not merely the financial cost, it's the "approval rating."
Quote
BTW, who is this guy? https://twitter.com/#!/thepeterha/status/198202619527827456
I'm not sure. I've seen him tweet on brammo-related subjects before.  His about.me page says he's managing editor of Techcrunch. 
The Brammoforum Wiki is still active: http://www.brammoforum.com/wiki

ElectRick

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2012, 10:11:05 AM »
$20K is 22K here in Illinois. Don't forget vehicle and sales taxes and shipping. So unless the non R version is way cheaper than that "I'm out". Also I like the look of the Empulse R a lot less than the origonal prototype. The belly area and large engine/trans/batt looks a bit chunky with wheels attached. The vacant area above the monoshock doesn't help much either. The origonal was sleeker and had the Ducati feel to it.

protomech

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
    • View Profile
    • ProtoBlog
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2012, 11:58:15 AM »
Wait til Tuesday to see what the actual price is. We've been speculating 18-20k for a while, this isn't a surprise.
1999 Honda VFR800i | 2014 Zero SR
Check out who's near you on frodus's EV owner map!
http://protomech.wordpress.com/

Vibetrippin

  • Empulse Guru
  • ****
  • Posts: 139
    • View Profile
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2012, 12:08:58 PM »
What will be a surprise is when they reveal that through backroom deals and an intense arm wrestling match they managed to secure unbelievable pricing. The R is going to come in at the Empulse 10 price and the standard Empulse is going to be holding with the Empulse 6 price.


If wishes were Empulses...  ::)

EmpulseRider

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 893
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2012, 12:26:55 PM »
$20k would still be a bit of a surprise... they had an extra year to dial in suppliers and refine the production model and manufacturing process. The batteries should be cheaper than they would have been a year prior... and I read somewhere that they get the cells from china. <- not sure about that though. So either they aim to maximize profit, or keep the price low and sell in volume. Im hoping the latter... They really need to stick close to the 14k price point for the "base" model.

Batteries should be less than $500/kWh in volume for the cells, so less than $5k there. I really dont think the transmission is going to add $6k to the price. I think the batteries are not the big cost they once were, and that is why Brammo is going with 9.3 on both models.

Besides, The Peter Ha thinks the 20k price speculation is BS... he seems like the guy who would have some inside 411.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 01:08:50 PM by EmpulseBuyer »

skuzzle

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 236
    • View Profile
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2012, 01:01:41 PM »
I think the plan is to leak to the press that it's going to be $20k, then price it at $18k.  Then we all go "Hey look, its only $18k!".

protomech

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 1987
    • View Profile
    • ProtoBlog
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2012, 03:43:14 PM »
$20k would still be a bit of a surprise... they had an extra year to dial in suppliers and refine the production model and manufacturing process. The batteries should be cheaper than they would have been a year prior... and I read somewhere that they get the cells from china. <- not sure about that though. So either they aim to maximize profit, or keep the price low and sell in volume. Im hoping the latter... They really need to stick close to the 14k price point for the "base" model.

Batteries should be less than $500/kWh in volume for the cells, so less than $5k there. I really dont think the transmission is going to add $6k to the price. I think the batteries are not the big cost they once were, and that is why Brammo is going with 9.3 on both models.

Besides, The Peter Ha thinks the 20k price speculation is BS... he seems like the guy who would have some inside 411.

I wouldn't be surprised if the cells came from China.

Zero's cells come from South Korea, EIG.

My general feeling is that the Zero S pricing has a little bit of profit built-in ($2-3k/unit) .. as does the Enertia Plus. I feel like the two are competitively priced against each other. The E+ pricing should be a big hint to the Empulse pricing.

Let's use a Zero-like bike as the "base" for a price comparison. Let's start with the assumption Brammo has a better supply chain management and might be willing to take a smaller profit cut to sell the bikes, so let's use a $13k 7.9 kWh bike as the base bike price point. Also note the distinction between cost and price.. cost is the price Brammo pays its suppliers to source components in bulk. Price is the incremental change in the figure the consumer pays to Brammo. Hand-waving ahead.

1. Batteries. $500/kWh may be the base cell cost, but then you have to consider packaging, cooling, monitor hardware, assembly labor, returns / loss and profit. Zero sells the ZF6 5.3 kWh and ZF9 7.9 kWh at a $2500 price differential, $960/kWh. Brammo sells the (presumably) $8k 3.1 kWh 2012 Enertia and the $11k 6.2 kWh Enertia+, $970/kWh. The only real difference between the ZF6/ZF9 bikes and the 2012 Enertia/Enertia+ bikes are the batteries.

Upgrading the battery from 7.9 kWh to 9.3 kWh adds $1350 to the price.

2. Upgraded charger. Zero sells the standalone 1 kW Delta-Q QuiQ for $500 for the '12 S. A 3 kW liquid-cooled custom-designed charger + J1772 inlet is probably going to be priced in the neighborhood of $1200 (hand wave). Note that the included 110v accessory cable is also rather more expensive, as it includes the J1772 "gun" plug.

Figure the upgraded charger adds $700 to the price.

3. Upgraded liquid-cooled motor. Zero uses a modified 30 kW Motenergy PM0913 BLDC air-cooled motor, typical web price $800.

Figure upgrading the motor and cooling system add $700 to the price. Hand wave.

4. Upgraded motor controller. Zero and Brammo both use Sevcon Gen 4 controllers (PDF), Zero is air-cooled. Brammo may be liquid-cooled.

Zero claims 220A for XU, 420A for S/DS. At 65V, this means 14kW XU and 27kW S/DS, which match well to the Zero bike's 2 minute claims. The closest Sevcon controllers are G4827 XU and G4845 S/DS. Thunderstruck lists these at $575 and $875 respectively.

Brammo claims 270A sustained. G8055 seems to be way overkill for Brammo's application. G8035 maybe can do 270A sustained with liquid-cooling.. or maybe Brammo is talking about 2 minute numbers like Zero. Thunderstruck doesn't list the G8035, but another vendor lists the G4845 at $925, the G8035 at $995, and the G8055 at $1195.

G8035 seems to be about as expensive as G4845 (both are Gen 4 Size 4 controllers). Call it +$50 to make even numbers : )

5. IET. I assume there's a fair bit of R&D investment built up here, even though the material cost is inexpensive. SMRE's pricing to Brammo will probably be high, initially.

Assume $1000 IET cost. Assume Zero's belt system adds about $100 in cost vs a chain system. Transmission net = $900. Hand wave.

6. Upgraded displays, instrumentation, and logging capability. Zero uses a rebadged $200 KOSO instrument cluster for their bikes. I'll need to add a cycleanalyst high-current ($150) and an analogger addon ($100) to get similar functionality to the Enertia/Empulse displays.

Figure the upgraded displays add $100 to the price.

7. Various bits, bobs, etc. Assume passenger pillions and 12V DC are stock, those are about $500 in options for the Zero.

Figure $750 for better quality components in general and more standard equipment.

8. Frame, fairing, forks, shocks, brakes, wheels, tires are different. I assume the base Empulse uses components similar in quality and cost to the Zero. Likely a bad assumption. Call this a wash.

Total bill:
$13000 base bike price
+ $1350 battery
+ $700 charger
+ $700 motor and cooling system
+ $50 controller
+ $900 IET chain drive
+ $100 displays
+ $750 better components, standard equipment

= $17550 base Empulse price, assuming Brammo wants to take a hit on profits.

« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 03:57:10 PM by protomech »
1999 Honda VFR800i | 2014 Zero SR
Check out who's near you on frodus's EV owner map!
http://protomech.wordpress.com/

860

  • Brammovangelist
  • *****
  • Posts: 231
    • View Profile
Re: Sticker Shock?
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2012, 04:08:58 PM »
Great post, proto, as always.

...Let's start with the assumption Brammo has a better supply chain management...


I'll buy that claim when it comes for the factory-built models, like the Plus.  I'm not sure I'd buy that claim when it comes to small volumes of hand-built units in Oregon.  Seems like two completely different supply chain structures.  They are either going to have to buy a year's worth of parts and store them all, or buy small batches of parts to arrive each month.  Both of these supply chains have their problems.